Related papers: Stochastic Volatility with Heterogeneous Time Scal…
This paper investigates how similarity in the informational representation of market states among Artificial Intelligence (AI) trading agents can generate systemic instability in financial markets. We construct a structural multi-agent…
This paper presents a novel approach to stochastic volatility (SV) modeling by utilizing nonparametric techniques that enhance our ability to capture the volatility of financial time series data, with a particular emphasis on the…
Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs) are the workhorse in macroeconomic forecasting. Research in the last decade has established the importance of allowing time-varying volatility to capture both secular and cyclical variations in…
In this paper, we propose the uncertain volatility models with stochastic bounds. Like the regular uncertain volatility models, we know only that the true model lies in a family of progressively measurable and bounded processes, but instead…
A stochastic model for a mobile network is studied. Users enter the network, and then perform independent Markovian routes between nodes where they receive service according to the Processor-Sharing policy. Once their service requirement is…
In the over-the-counter market in derivatives, we sometimes see large numbers of traders taking the same position and risk. When there is this kind of concentration in the market, the position impacts the pricings of all other derivatives…
We introduce an affine extension of the Heston model where the instantaneous variance process contains a jump part driven by $\alpha$-stable processes with $\alpha\in(1,2]$. In this framework, we examine the implied volatility and its…
We consider a stochastic volatility model where the dynamics of the volatility are given by a possibly infinite linear combination of the elements of the time extended signature of a Brownian motion. First, we show that the model is…
It is common for long financial time series to exhibit gradual change in the unconditional volatility. We propose a new model that captures this type of nonstationarity in a parsimonious way. The model augments the volatility equation of a…
The aim of this work is to introduce a new stochastic volatility model for equity derivatives. To overcome some of the well-known problems of the Heston model, and more generally of the affine models, we define a new specification for the…
The inherent complexity of biological agents often leads to motility behavior that appears to have random components. Robust stochastic inference methods are therefore required to understand and predict the motion patterns from time…
An important aspect in jointly analysing networked control systems and their communication is to model the networking in a sufficiently rich but at the same time mathematically tractable way. As such, this paper improves on a recently…
Longitudinal data are important in numerous fields, such as healthcare, sociology and seismology, but real-world datasets present notable challenges for practitioners because they can be high-dimensional, contain structured missingness…
Modeling car-following behavior is fundamental to microscopic traffic simulation, yet traditional deterministic models often fail to capture the full extent of variability and unpredictability in human driving. While many modern approaches…
It is a market practice to express market-implied volatilities in some parametric form. The most popular parametrizations are based on or inspired by an underlying stochastic model, like the Heston model (SVI method) or the SABR model (SABR…
We study the dependence of volatility on the stock price in the stochastic volatility framework on the example of the Heston model. To be more specific, we consider the conditional expectation of variance (square of volatility) under fixed…
We prove that a wide class of correlated stochastic volatility models exactly measure an empirical fact in which past returns are anticorrelated with future volatilities: the so-called ``leverage effect''. This quantitative measure allows…
Using a large dataset on major FX rates, we test the robustness of the rough fractional volatility model over different time scales, by including smoothing and measurement errors into the analysis. Our findings lead to new stylized facts in…
Stock markets can be characterized by fat tails in the volatility distribution, clustering of volatilities and slow decay of their time correlations. For an explanation models with several mechanisms and consequently many parameters as the…
Existing theory of momentum assumes that gradients arrive at every parameter at a roughly constant rate, an assumption violated in practice by heavy-tailed data distributions and modern architectures. We theoretically analyze the dynamics…