Related papers: Simultaneous confidence bands for Yule-Walker esti…
We propose kernel estimator for the distribution function of unobserved errors in autoregressive time series, based on residuals computed by estimating the autoregressive coefficients with the Yule-Walker method. Under mild assumptions, we…
The maximum ${\log}_q$ likelihood estimation method is a generalization of the known maximum $\log$ likelihood method to overcome the problem for modeling non-identical observations (inliers and outliers). The parameter $q$ is a tuning…
The Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model is a benchmark model for pairwise comparisons between individuals. Despite recent progress on the first-order asymptotics of several popular procedures, the understanding of uncertainty quantification in…
We propose simultaneous confidence bands of the hyperbolic-type for the contrasts between several nonlinear (curvilinear) regression curves. The critical value of a confidence band is determined from the distribution of the maximum of a…
The problem of simultaneous estimation of location/scale parameters $\theta_1$ and $\theta_2$ of a general bivariate location/scale model, when the ordering between the parameters is known apriori (say, $\theta_1\leq \theta_2$), has been…
We propose confidence sequences -- sequences of confidence intervals which are valid uniformly over time -- for quantiles of any distribution over a complete, fully-ordered set, based on a stream of i.i.d. observations. We give methods both…
Weibull distribution has received a wide range of applications in engineering and science. The utility and usefulness of an estimator is highly subject to the field of practitioner's study. In practice users looking for their desired…
We study the problem of model selection type aggregation with respect to the Kullback-Leibler divergence for various probabilistic models. Rather than considering a convex combination of the initial estimators $f_1, \ldots, f_N$, our…
We generalize standard credal set models for imprecise probabilities to include higher order credal sets -- confidences about confidences. In doing so, we specify how an agent's higher order confidences (credal sets) update upon observing…
In this work, we revisit the estimation of the model parameters of a Weibull distribution based on iid observations, using the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method which does not yield closed expressions of the estimators. Among other…
We consider component-wise estimation of order restricted location/scale parameters $\theta_1$ and $\theta_2$ ($\theta_1\leq \theta_2$) of a general bivariate distribution under the squared error loss function. To find improvements over the…
We consider optimal sequential allocation in the context of the so-called stochastic multi-armed bandit model. We describe a generic index policy, in the sense of Gittins [J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B Stat. Methodol. 41 (1979) 148-177], based on…
We study the $K$-Max combinatorial multi-armed bandits problem with continuous outcome distributions and weak value-index feedback: each base arm has an unknown continuous outcome distribution, and in each round the learning agent selects…
Uniform and nonuniform Berry--Esseen (BE) bounds of optimal orders on the closeness to normality for general abstract nonlinear statistics are given, which are then used to obtain optimal bounds on the rate of convergence in the delta…
We study the maximum likelihood estimator of density of $n$ independent observations, under the assumption that it is well approximated by a mixture with a large number of components. The main focus is on statistical properties with respect…
Let $X_1,X_2,...$ be independent identically distributed random variables with $\mathbb E X_k=0$, $\mathrm{Var} X_k=1$. Suppose that $\varphi(t):=\log \mathbb E e^{t X_k}<\infty$ for all $t>-\sigma_0$ and some $\sigma_0>0$. Let…
There are essentially three kinds of approaches to Uncertainty Quantification (UQ): (A) robust optimization, (B) Bayesian, (C) decision theory. Although (A) is robust, it is unfavorable with respect to accuracy and data assimilation. (B)…
We study the problem of estimating a distribution over a finite alphabet from an i.i.d. sample, with accuracy measured in relative entropy (Kullback-Leibler divergence). While optimal bounds on the expected risk are known, high-probability…
The distribution of the spacing, or the difference between consecutive order statistics, is known only for uniform and exponential random variates. We add here logistic and Gumbel variates, and present an estimator for distributions with a…
Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) is arguably the most commonly used method for linear multi-arm bandit problems. While conceptually and computationally simple, this method highly relies on the confidence bounds, failing to strike the optimal…