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Neural estimators are simulation-based estimators for the parameters of a family of statistical models, which build a direct mapping from the sample to the parameter vector. They benefit from the versatility of available network…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-24 Almut Rödder , Manuel Hentschel , Sebastian Engelke

In this paper, we derive closed-form estimators for the parameters of certain exponential family distributions through the maximum a posteriori (MAP) equations. A Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to assess the performance of the proposed…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-16 Roberto Vila , Helton Saulo , Eduardo Nakano

We study maximum likelihood estimation in log-linear models under conditional Poisson sampling schemes. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for existence of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the model parameters and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-07-24 Stephen E. Fienberg , Alessandro Rinaldo

A parametric method similar to autoregressive spectral estimators is proposed to determine the probability density function (pdf) of a random set. The method proceeds by maximizing the likelihood of the pdf, yielding estimates that perform…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-10-31 T. Dudok de Wit , E. Floriani

The problem of astrometry is revisited from the perspective of analyzing the attainability of well-known performance limits (the Cramer-Rao bound) for the estimation of the relative position of light-emitting (usually point-like) sources on…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2018-09-05 Sebastian Espinosa , Jorge F. Silva , Rene A. Mendez , Rodrigo Lobos , Marcos Orchard

We discuss a new weighted likelihood method for parametric estimation. The method is motivated by the need for generating a simple estimation strategy which provides a robust solution that is simultaneously fully efficient when the model is…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-29 Suman Majumder , Adhidev Biswas , Tania Roy , Subir Kumar Bhandari , Ayanendranath Basu

In this Letter, we strengthen and extend the connection between simulation and estimation to exploit simulation routines that do not exactly compute the probability of experimental data, known as the likelihood function. Rather, we provide…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2014-04-14 Christopher Ferrie , Christopher E. Granade

We consider the problem of estimating the joint distribution of $n$ independent random variables. Our approach is based on a family of candidate probabilities that we shall call a model and which is chosen to either contain the true…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-01 Yannick Baraud

The total loss function associated with a set of cross-sectional predictions, that is, estimates or forecasts, summarizes the set's overall accuracy. Its arguments are the individual cross-sectional units' loss functions. Under general…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-22 Charles D. Coleman

Simulators often provide the best description of real-world phenomena. However, they also lead to challenging inverse problems because the density they implicitly define is often intractable. We present a new suite of simulation-based…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-25 Johann Brehmer , Gilles Louppe , Juan Pavez , Kyle Cranmer

Sequential estimators are proposed for the relative risk, odds ratio, log relative risk or log odds ratio of a dichotomous attribute in two populations. The estimators take the same number of observations from each population, and guarantee…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-07 Luis Mendo

Language models (LMs) estimate a probability distribution over strings in a natural language; these distributions are crucial for computing perplexity and surprisal in linguistics research. While we are usually concerned with measuring…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-15 Tiago Pimentel , Clara Meister

In this paper we consider regression problems subject to arbitrary noise in the operator or design matrix. This characterization appropriately models many physical phenomena with uncertainty in the regressors. Although the problem has been…

Computation · Statistics 2021-04-08 Richard J Clancy , Stephen Becker

Posterior inference with an intractable likelihood is becoming an increasingly common task in scientific domains which rely on sophisticated computer simulations. Typically, these forward models do not admit tractable densities forcing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-29 Joeri Hermans , Volodimir Begy , Gilles Louppe

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning have led to neural networks being used to generate lightning-speed answers to complex science questions, paintings in the style of Monet, or stories like those of Twain. Leveraging…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-25 Matthew Sainsbury-Dale , Andrew Zammit-Mangion , Noel Cressie , Raphaël Huser

Elliptically symmetric distributions are widely used in portfolio modeling, as well as in signal processing applications for modeling impulsive background noises. Of particular interest are algorithms for covariance estimation and subspace…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-12-01 Christophe Culan , Claude Adnet

In this work we provide a simple estimation procedure for a general frailty model for analysis of prospective correlated failure times. Rigorous large-sample theory for the proposed estimators of both the regression coefficient vector and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Malka Gorfine , David M. Zucker , Li Hsu

While deep neural networks are highly performant and successful in a wide range of real-world problems, estimating their predictive uncertainty remains a challenging task. To address this challenge, we propose and implement a loss function…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-14 Tony Tohme , Kevin Vanslette , Kamal Youcef-Toumi

We give a principled method for decomposing the predictive uncertainty of a model into aleatoric and epistemic components with explicit semantics relating them to the real-world data distribution. While many works in the literature have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-30 Gustaf Ahdritz , Aravind Gollakota , Parikshit Gopalan , Charlotte Peale , Udi Wieder

Topological loss based on persistent homology has shown promise in various applications. A topological loss enforces the model to achieve certain desired topological property. Despite its empirical success, less is known about the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Yikai Zhang , Jiachen Yao , Yusu Wang , Chao Chen