English
Related papers

Related papers: A nonautonomous epidemic model with general incide…

200 papers

For a susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) infection model in a heterogeneous population, we present simple formulae giving the leading-order asymptotic (large population) behaviour of the mean persistence time, from an endemic state to…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-07-12 Damian Clancy

We discuss the criticality in the stochastic SIR model for infectious diseases. We adopt the path-integral formalism for the propagation of infections among susceptible, infectious, and removed individuals, and perform the perturbative and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-02-14 Shigehiro Yasui , Yutaka Hatakeyama , Yoshiyasu Okuhara

This paper studies the distribution function of the time of extinction of a subcritical epidemic, when a large enough proportion of the population has been immunized and/or the infectivity of the infectious individuals has been reduced, so…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-05 Anicet Mougabe-Peurkor , Ibrahima Drame , Modeste N'zi , Etienne Pardoux

We study the phase transition from the persistence phase to the extinction phase for the SIRS (susceptible/ infected/ refractory/ susceptible) model of diseases spreading on the networks. We derive an analytical expression of the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-11-18 M. Ali Saif

In this work, we develop a spatial SEIAR-type epidemic model considering a quarantined population (denoted as Q), which we call the SQEIAR model. The dynamics of the SQEIAR model are described by six Partial Differential Equations (PDEs)…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-01-27 Elghandouri Mohammed , Ezzinbi Khalil , Youness Mezzan

Recent years have seen a large amount of interest in epidemics on networks as a way of representing the complex structure of contacts capable of spreading infections through the modern human population. The configuration model is a popular…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-01-23 Frank Ball , Thomas House

We performed a thorough sensitivity analysis of the herd immunity threshold for discrete-time SIR compartmental models with a static network structure. We find unexpectedly that these models violate classical intuition which holds that the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-02-27 Sinan A. Ozbay , Bjarke F. Nielsen , Maximilian M. Nguyen

The last decade saw the advent of increasingly realistic epidemic models that leverage on the availability of highly detailed census and human mobility data. Data-driven models aim at a granularity down to the level of households or single…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2011-08-10 Nicola Perra , Duygu Balcan , Bruno Gonçalves , Alessandro Vespignani

The mathematical modeling of the propagation of illnesses has an important role from both mathematical and biological points of view. In this article, we observe an SEIR-type model with a general incidence rate and a non-constant…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-02-19 B. M. Takács , G. Svantnerné Sebestyén , I. Faragó

Threshold theorem is probably the most important development of mathematical epidemic modelling. Unfortunately, some models may not behave according to the threshold. In this paper, we will focus on the final outcome of SIR model with…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-03-06 Kurnia Susvitasari

We introduce a modified SIR model with memory for the dynamics of epidemic spreading in a constant population of individuals. Each individual is in one of the states susceptible (${\bf S}$), infected (${\bf I}$) or recovered (${\bf R}$). In…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-03-03 Michael Bestehorn , Thomas M. Michelitsch , Bernard A. Collet , Alejandro P. Riascos , Andrzej F. Nowakowski

Parasite quiescence is the ability for the pathogen to be inactive, with respect to metabolism and infectiousness, for some amount of time and then become active (infectious) again. The population is thus composed of an inactive proportion,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-03-11 Usman Sanusi , Sona John , Johannes Mueller , Aurélien Tellier

Infection spread among individuals is modelled with a continuous time Markov chain, in which subject interactions depend on their distance in space. The well known SIR model and non local variants of the latter are then obtained as large…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-09-27 Franco Flandoli , Francesco Grotto , Andrea Papini , Cristiano Ricci

In this article a space-dependent epidemic model equipped with a constant latency period is examined. We construct a delay partial integro-differential equation and show that its solution possesses some biologically reasonable features. We…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-08-02 B. Takács , I. Faragó , R. Horváth , D. Repovš

Approximating the time to extinction of infection is an important problem in infection modelling. A variety of different approaches have been proposed in the literature. We study the performance of a number of such methods, and characterize…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-07-11 Damian Clancy , Elliott Tjia

In this paper, a generalized fractional-order SEIR model is proposed, denoted by SEIQRP model, which has a basic guiding significance for the prediction of the possible outbreak of infectious diseases like COVID-19 and other insect diseases…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-04-30 Conghui Xu , Yongguang Yu , QuanChen Yang , Zhenzhen Lu

As the outbreak of COVID-19 enters its third year, we have now enough data to analyse the behavior of the pandemic with mathematical models over a long period of time. The pandemic alternates periods of high and low infections, in a way…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-03-17 Alex Viguerie , Margherita Carletti , Alessandro Veneziani , Guido Silvestri

We study an individual-based stochastic SIR epidemic model with infection-age dependent infectivity on a large random graph, capturing individual heterogeneity and non-homogeneous connectivity. Each individual is associated with particular…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-11 Guodong Pang , Étienne Pardoux , Aurélien Velleret

The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model has successfully mimicked the propagation of such airborne diseases as influenza A (H1N1). Although the SIR model has recently been studied in a multilayer networks configuration, in almost all…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-07-16 L. G. Alvarez Zuzek , H. E. Stanley , L. A. Braunstein

In this paper we consider the stability of a class of deterministic and stochastic SEIRS epidemic models with delay. Indeed, we assume that the transmission rate could be stochastic and the presence of a latency period of $r$ consecutive…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-02-22 Xavier Bardina , Marco Ferrante , Carles Rovira