Related papers: Reconstructed Total Solar Irradiance as a precurso…
Solar irradiance variations across various timescales, from minutes to centuries, represents a potential natural driver of past regional and global climate cold phases. To accurately assess the Sun's effect on climate, particularly during…
Solar activity forecasting is an important topic for numerous scientific and technological areas, such as space mission operations, electric power transmission lines, power transformation stations and earth geophysical and climatic impact.…
The problem of prediction of a given time series is examined on the basis of recent nonlinear dynamics theories. Particular attention is devoted to forecast the amplitude and phase of one of the most common solar indicator activity, the…
Context. Solar activity, dominated by the 11-year cyclic evolution, has been observed directly since 1610. Before that, indirect cosmogenic proxy data are used to reconstruct it over millennia. Recently, the precision of radiocarbon…
The variation of total solar irradiance (TSI) has been measured since 1978 and that of the spectral irradiance for an even shorter amount of time. Semi-empirical models are now available that reproduce over 80% of the measured irradiance…
Solar irradiance measurements are limited to the last few decades, requiring reconstructions to assess solar variability on longer timescales and its impact on Earth's climate. We present the first physics-based reconstruction of total…
A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24 and focusing on aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is…
One of the important open questions in solar irradiance studies is whether long-term variability (i.e. on timescales of years and beyond) can be reconstructed by means of models that describe short-term variability (i.e. days) using solar…
The Sun is the main energy source to Earth, and understanding its variability is of direct relevance to climate studies. Measurements of total solar irradiance exist since 1978, but this is too short compared to climate-relevant time…
Presented here is a review of present knowledge of the long-term behavior of solar activity on a multi-millennial timescale, as reconstructed using the indirect proxy method. The concept of solar activity is discussed along with an overview…
The 11-year solar cycle is the dominant pattern of solar activity reflecting the oscillatory dynamo mechanism in the Sun. Solar cycles were directly observed since 1700, while indirect proxies suggest their existence over a much longer…
There are many proposed prediction methods for solar cycles behavior. In a previous paper we updated the full-shape curve prediction of the current solar cycle 24 using a non-linear dynamics method and we compared the results with the…
We present a reconstruction of total solar irradiance since 1610 to the present based on variations of the surface distribution of the solar magnetic field. The latter is calculated from the historical record of the Group sunspot number…
The Solar Cycle is reviewed. The 11-year cycle of solar activity is characterized by the rise and fall in the numbers and surface area of sunspots. A number of other solar activity indicators also vary in association with the sunspots…
The recent paucity of sunspots and the delay in the expected start of Solar Cycle 24 have drawn attention to the challenges involved in predicting solar activity. Traditional models of the solar cycle usually require information about the…
Total solar irradiance (TSI) has been monitored from space since 1978. The measurements show a prominent variability in phase with the solar cycle, as well as fluctuations on timescales shorter than a few days. However, the measurements…
Various methods (or recipes) have been proposed to predict future solar activity levels - with mixed success. Among these, some precursor methods based upon quantities determined around or a few years before solar minimum have provided…
The variable Sun is the most likely candidate for natural forcing of past climate change on time scales of 50 to 1000 years. Evidence for this understanding is that the terrestrial climate correlates positively with solar activity. During…
Total and spectral solar irradiance are key parameters in the assessment of solar influence on changes in the Earth's climate. We present a reconstruction of daily solar irradiance obtained using the SATIRE-S model spanning 1974 to 2013…
Forecasting the solar cycle amplitude is important for a better understanding of the solar dynamo as well as for many space weather applications. We demonstrated a steady relationship between the maximal growth rate of sunspot activity in…