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In probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), the exceedance probability of a ground-motion intensity measure (IM) is typically evaluated. However, in recent years, dynamic response analyses using ground-motion time histories as input…

Geophysics · Physics 2026-04-07 Yuma Matsumoto , Taro Yaoyama , Sangwon Lee , Asako Iwaki , Tatsuya Itoi

In this paper, I introduce a novel approach to modelling the individual random component (also called the intra-event uncertainty) of a ground-motion relation (GMR), as well as a novel approach to estimating the corresponding parameters. In…

Geophysics · Physics 2016-07-20 Mathias Raschke

The Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) method reliably and realistically simulates the suite of earthquake ground motions that may impact civil populations as well as their heritage buildings. The modeling technique is…

Geophysics · Physics 2017-09-12 Giuliano F. Panza

Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) play a key role in seismic hazard assessment (SHA). Considering the seismo-tectonic, geophysical and geotectonic characteristics of a target region, all the GMPEs may not be suitable in predicting…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-10-10 S. Selvan , Suman Sinha

Estimates of seismic wave speeds in the Earth (seismic velocity models) are key input parameters to earthquake simulations for ground motion prediction. Owing to the non-uniqueness of the seismic inverse problem, typically many velocity…

Epistemic uncertainty in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is commonly addressed through a logic-tree framework that combines weighted alternative models to characterize the range of plausible hazard outcomes. Implicit in this…

Geophysics · Physics 2026-03-03 Davide Zaccagnino , Didier Sornette

Recent developments in extreme value statistics have established the so-called geometric approach as a powerful modelling tool for multivariate extremes. We tailor these methods to the case of spatial modelling and examine their efficacy at…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-20 Lydia Kakampakou , Jennifer L. Wadsworth

The Proportional Hazards (PH) model is one of the most widely used models in survival analysis, typically assuming a log-linear relationship between covariates and the hazard function. However, in the context of spatial survival data, where…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-17 Lorenzo Tedesco , Francesco Finazzi

Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPE) are essential in probabilistic seismic hazard studies for estimating the ground motions generated by the seismic sources. In low seismicity regions, only weak motions are available in the lifetime…

A new approach for creating a non-ergodic $PSA$ ground-motion model (GMM) is presented which account for the magnitude dependence of the non-ergodic effects. In this approach, the average $PSA$ scaling is controlled by an ergodic $PSA$ GMM,…

Applications · Statistics 2021-07-21 Grigorios Lavrentiadis , Norman A. Abrahamson

The $b$-value in the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law contains information that is essential for evaluating earthquake hazard and predicting the occurrence of large earthquakes. Estimates of $b$ are often based on seismic events whose magnitude…

Geophysics · Physics 2018-03-19 Jesper Martinsson , Adam Jonsson

Developing statistical models for seismic noise is an exercise of high value in seismic data analysis since these models play a critical role in detecting the onset of seismic events. A majority of these models are usually built on certain…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-04 Kanchan Aggarwal , Siddhartha Mukhopadhyay , Arun K Tangirala

The State of Tripura lies in northeast India which is considered to be one of the most seismically active regions of the world. In the present study, a realistic Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) of Tripura State based on…

Geophysics · Physics 2022-12-23 Suman Sinha , S. Selvan

Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms and many more. Despite the intrinsic differences between these…

Objective testing is a key issue in the process of revision and improvement of seismic hazard assessments. Therefore we continue the rigorous comparative analysis of past and newly available hazard maps for the territory of Italy against…

We consider the Gumbel or extreme value statistics describing the distribution function p_G(x_max) of the maximum values of a random field x within patches of fixed size. We present, for smooth Gaussian random fields in two and three…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-27 S. Colombi , O. Davis , J. Devriendt , S. Prunet , J. Silk

We consider distributed estimation of the inverse covariance matrix, also called the concentration or precision matrix, in Gaussian graphical models. Traditional centralized estimation often requires global inference of the covariance…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-15 Zhaoshi Meng , Dennis Wei , Ami Wiesel , Alfred O. Hero

A standard model of (conditional) heteroscedasticity, i.e., the phenomenon that the variance of a process changes over time, is the Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, which is especially important for…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-24 Balázs Csanád Csáji

Extreme geophysical events are of crucial relevance to our daily life: they threaten human lives and cause property damage. To assess the risk and reduce losses, we need to model and probabilistically predict these events. Parametrizations…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2019-09-04 Guannan Hu , Tamás Bódai , Valerio Lucarini

The first law of geography is a cornerstone of spatial analysis, emphasizing that nearby and related locations tend to be more similar, however, defining what constitutes "near" and "related" remains challenging, as different phenomena…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-02 M. Naser Lessani , Zhenlong Li , Manzhu Yu , Helen Greatrex , Chan Shen
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