Related papers: A Multivariate Graphical Stochastic Volatility Mod…
We consider the problem of learning a Gaussian variational approximation to the posterior distribution for a high-dimensional parameter, where we impose sparsity in the precision matrix to reflect appropriate conditional independence…
Volatility forecasting is essential for risk management and decision-making in financial markets. Traditional models like Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) effectively capture volatility clustering but often…
Graphical models are commonly used tools for modeling multivariate random variables. While there exist many convenient multivariate distributions such as Gaussian distribution for continuous data, mixed data with the presence of discrete…
Functional brain networks are well described and estimated from data with Gaussian Graphical Models (GGMs), e.g. using sparse inverse covariance estimators. Comparing functional connectivity of subjects in two populations calls for…
The present article concerns the stochastic modeling of the turbulent dissipation field and in particular its temporal evolution. To do so, we will be calling for a random distribution, ubiquitous in several aspects of physics and…
Volatility clustering and spillovers are key features of real-world financial time series when there are a lot of cross-sectional financial assets. While network analysis helps connect stocks that are 'similar' or 'correlated', which is…
The G-Wishart distribution is an essential component for the Bayesian analysis of Gaussian graphical models as the conjugate prior for the precision matrix. Evaluating the marginal likelihood of such models usually requires computing…
Gaussian graphical models have been used to study intrinsic dependence among several variables, but the Gaussianity assumption may be restrictive in many applications. A nonparanormal graphical model is a semiparametric generalization for…
This paper proposes an enhanced approach to modeling and forecasting volatility using high frequency data. Using a forecasting model based on Realized GARCH with multiple time-frequency decomposed realized volatility measures, we study the…
A plethora of static and dynamic models exist to forecast Value-at-Risk and other quantile-related metrics used in financial risk management. Industry practice tends to favour simpler, static models such as historical simulation or its…
In this paper we consider the simulation-based Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility in mean (SVM) models. Extending the highly efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo mixture sampler for the SV model proposed in Kim et al. (1998) and Omori…
Gaussian Graphical Models (GGMs) are widely used in high-dimensional data analysis to synthesize the interaction between variables. In many applications, such as genomics or image analysis, graphical models rely on sparsity and clustering…
Gaussian graphical models (GGMs) are probabilistic tools of choice for analyzing conditional dependencies between variables in complex systems. Finding changepoints in the structural evolution of a GGM is therefore essential to detecting…
In learned image compression, probabilistic models play an essential role in characterizing the distribution of latent variables. The Gaussian model with mean and scale parameters has been widely used for its simplicity and effectiveness.…
For the problem of inferring a Gaussian graphical model (GGM), this work explores the application of a recent approach from the multiple testing literature for graph inference. The main idea of the method by Rebafka et al. (2022) is to…
Estimating covariances between financial assets plays an important role in risk management. In practice, when the sample size is small compared to the number of variables, the empirical estimate is known to be very unstable. Here, we…
There are various metrics for financial risk, such as value at risk (VaR), expected shortfall, expected/unexpected loss, etc. When estimating these metrics, it was very common to assume Gaussian distribution for the asset returns, which may…
Existing approaches to the crime prediction problem are unsuccessful in expressing the details since they assign the probability values to large regions. This paper introduces a new architecture with the graph convolutional networks (GCN)…
Gaussian Process State Space Models (GP-SSM) are a data-driven stochastic model class suitable to represent nonlinear dynamics. They have become increasingly popular in non-parametric modeling approaches since they provide not only a…
The global sensitivity analysis method, used to quantify the influence of uncertain input variables on the response variability of a numerical model, is applicable to deterministic computer code (for which the same set of input variables…