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Enduring violent conflicts are interrupted by lulls without violence. Studies of interevent times found power law distributions based on coarse-grained data with a resolution of one day. Fine-grained data of violence with a resolution of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-04-14 Jeroen Bruggeman

Deep sequence models are receiving significant interest in current machine learning research. By representing probability distributions that are fit to data using maximum likelihood estimation, such models can model data on general…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-09-09 Kristian Løvland , Bjarne Grimstad , Lars Struen Imsland

The estimation of parameters in a linear model is considered under the hypothesis that the noise, with finite second order statistics, can be represented in a given deterministic basis by random coefficients. An extended underdetermined…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-05-06 Piero Barone , Isabella Lari

For a high-dimensional parameter of interest, tests based on quadratic statistics are known to have low power against subsets of the parameter space (henceforth, parameter subspaces). In addition, they typically involve an inverse…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-20 Nick Koning

We reexamine the classical linear regression model when the model is subject to two types of uncertainty: (i) some of covariates are either missing or completely inaccessible, and (ii) the variance of the measurement error is undetermined…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-05 Shuzhen Yang , Jianfeng Yao

Power-law distributions are widely observed in complex systems, yet establishing their thermodynamic consistency remains a theoretical challenge. In this paper, we present a thermodynamic framework for power-law statistics based on the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-03-31 Hiroki Suyari

Nonlinear longitudinal proportional effect models have been proposed to improve power and provide direct estimates of the proportional treatment effect in randomized clinical trials. These models assume a fixed proportional treatment effect…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-23 Michael C. Donohue , Philip S. Insel , Oliver Langford

This paper develops power and sample size formulas for causal inference with time-to-event outcomes. The target estimand is the marginal hazard ratio: the coefficient of a marginal structural Cox proportional hazard model with treatment as…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-19 Chengxin Yang , Bo Liu , Fan Li

We report experiments on gravity-capillary wave turbulence on the surface of a fluid. The wave amplitudes are measured simultaneously in time and space using an optical method. The full space-time power spectrum shows that the wave energy…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2010-10-01 Eric Herbert , Nicolas Mordant , Eric Falcon

Linear models are foundational tools in statistics and ubiquitous across the applied sciences. However, conventional statistical inference -- such as $t$-tests and $F$-tests -- are only valid at fixed sample sizes, making them unsuitable…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Michael Lindon , Dae Woong Ham , Martin Tingley , Iavor Bojinov

Deviation from standard dispersion relations for electrons and photons in the form of an extra term proportional to an arbitrarily high power of momentum is studied. It is shown that observational constraints lead to a region in the…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2019-12-16 Vladimír Balek , Orchidea Maria Lecian

Vector autoregressive models characterize a variety of time series in which linear combinations of current and past observations can be used to accurately predict future observations. For instance, each element of an observation vector…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-27 Eric C. Hall , Garvesh Raskutti , Rebecca Willett

Standard approaches to probabilistic reasoning require that one possesses an explicit model of the distribution in question. But, the empirical learning of models of probability distributions from partial observations is a problem for which…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-07-02 Brendan Juba

A mechanism is proposed for the appearance of power law distributions in various complex systems. It is shown that in a conservative mechanical system composed of subsystems with different numbers of degrees of freedom a robust power-law…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-01-03 Anirban Chakraborti , Marco Patriarca

This article proposes a novel estimator for regression coefficients in clustered data that explicitly accounts for within-cluster dependence. We study the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator under both finite and infinite…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-05 Subhodeep Dey , Gopal K. Basak , Samarjit Das

Inferential challenges that arise when data are censored have been extensively studied under the classical frameworks. In this paper, we provide an alternative generalized inferential model approach whose output is a data-dependent…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-16 Joyce Cahoon , Ryan Martin

Many man-made and natural phenomena, including the intensity of earthquakes, population of cities and size of international wars, are believed to follow power-law distributions. The accurate identification of power-law patterns has…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2014-04-15 Yogesh Virkar , Aaron Clauset

These lectures deal with the problem of inductive inference, that is, the problem of reasoning under conditions of incomplete information. Is there a general method for handling uncertainty? Or, at least, are there rules that could in…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-09-08 Ariel Caticha

The linear regression model is widely used in empirical work in Economics, Statistics, and many other disciplines. Researchers often include many covariates in their linear model specification in an attempt to control for confounders. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-12-12 Matias D. Cattaneo , Michael Jansson , Whitney K. Newey

Intertemporal decision making involves choices among options whose effects occur at different moments. These choices are influenced not only by the effect of rewards value perception at different moments, but also by the time perception…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2011-05-19 Natalia Destefano , Alexandre Souto Martinez