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With a sequence of regressions, one may generate joint probability distributions. One starts with a joint, marginal distribution of context variables having possibly a concentration graph structure and continues with an ordered sequence of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-02-03 Kayvan Sadeghi , Nanny Wermuth

Structured prediction tasks pose a fundamental trade-off between the need for model complexity to increase predictive power and the limited computational resources for inference in the exponentially-sized output spaces such models require.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-08-17 David Weiss , Benjamin Sapp , Ben Taskar

A new family of tree-structured Markov random fields for a vector of discrete counting random variables is introduced. According to the characteristics of the family, the marginal distributions of the Markov random fields are all Poisson…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-20 Benjamin Côté , Hélène Cossette , Etienne Marceau

In this work, we are concerned with existence and uniqueness of invariant measures for path-dependent random diffusions and their time discretizations. The random diffusion here means a diffusion process living in a random environment…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-06-20 Jianhai Bao , Jinghai Shao , Chenggui Yuan

The presence of a period-doubling cascade in dynamical systems that depend on a parameter is one of the basic routes to chaos. It is rarely mentioned that there are virtually always infinitely many cascades whenever there is one. We report…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-10-20 Evelyn Sander , James A. Yorke

Diffusions are a successful technique to sample from high-dimensional distributions. The target distribution can be either explicitly given or learnt from a collection of samples. They implement a diffusion process whose endpoint is a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Andrea Montanari

We propose a means to relate properties of an interconnected system to its separate component systems in the presence of cascade-like phenomena. Building on a theory of interconnection reminiscent of the behavioral approach to systems…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-11-26 Elie M. Adam , Munther A. Dahleh

A probabilistic framework is introduced that represents stylized banking networks and aims to predict the size of contagion events. In contrast to previous work on random financial networks, which assumes independent connections between…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2011-10-20 Thomas R. Hurd , James P. Gleeson

We investigate piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP), where the deterministic dynamics follows a scalar conservation law and random jumps in the system are characterized by changes in the flux function. We show under which…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-01-30 Stephan Knapp

The large deviations at 'Level 2.5 in time' for time-dependent ensemble-empirical-observables, introduced by C. Maes, K. Netocny and B. Wynants [Markov Proc. Rel. Fields. 14, 445 (2008)] for the case of $N$ independent Markov jump…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-05-12 Cecile Monthus

We consider the action of Mandelbrot multiplicative cascades on probability measures supported on a symbolic space. For general probability measures, we obtain almost a sharp criterion of non-degeneracy of the limiting measure; it relies on…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-26 Julien Barral , Xiong Jin

Markov chain Monte Carlo is an inherently serial algorithm. Although likelihood calculations for individual steps can sometimes be parallelized, the serial evolution of the process is widely viewed as incompatible with parallelization,…

Computation · Statistics 2013-12-31 Douglas N. VanDerwerken , Scott C. Schmidler

A new method is proposed which allows a reconstruction of time series based on higher order multiscale statistics given by a hierarchical process. This method is able to model the time series not only on a specific scale but for a range of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-13 A. P. Nawroth , J. Peinke

Markov chains are convenient means of generating realizations of networks with a given (joint or otherwise) degree distribution, since they simply require a procedure for rewiring edges. The major challenge is to find the right number of…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2012-11-01 J. Ray , A. Pinar , C. Seshadhri

The Langevin formulation of a number of well-known stochastic processes involves multiplicative noise. In this work we present a systematic mapping of a process with multiplicative noise to a related process with additive noise, which may…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-04-28 Katy J. Rubin , Gunnar Pruessner , Grigorios A. Pavliotis

We prove an apparently novel concentration of measure result for Markov tree processes. The bound we derive reduces to the known bounds for Markov processes when the tree is a chain, thus strictly generalizing the known Markov process…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Leonid Kontorovich

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are a popular model for decision-making in the presence of uncertainty. The conventional view of MDPs in verification treats them as state transformers with probabilities defined over sequences of states and…

Formal Languages and Automata Theory · Computer Science 2025-07-25 Yun Chen Tsai , Kittiphon Phalakarn , S. Akshay , Ichiro Hasuo

An independent random cascade measure is specified by a random generator, a vector of dimension c with non-negative components. The dimension c is called the branching cascade parameter. It is shown under certain restrictions that, if this…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-07 G. Molchan

We consider a time-continuous branching random walk on a one-dimensional lattice on which there is one center (lattice point) of particle generation, called branching source. The generation of particles in the branching source is described…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-19 E. Filichkina , E. Yarovaya

We consider the task of generating draws from a Markov jump process (MJP) between two time-points at which the process is known. Resulting draws are typically termed bridges and the generation of such bridges plays a key role in…

Computation · Statistics 2019-01-31 Andrew Golightly , Chris Sherlock