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Inference for models with recursively defined likelihoods is computationally demanding, limiting scalability to large datasets. We propose a stabilised weighted subsampling methodology for accelerated inference based on an unbiased…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-14 Matias Quiroz , Aishwarya Bhaskaran , Zixuan Wang , Thomas Goodwin

The ability to generate samples of the random effects from their conditional distributions is fundamental for inference in mixed effects models. Random walk Metropolis is widely used to conduct such sampling, but such a method can converge…

Applications · Statistics 2019-10-29 Belhal Karimi , Marc Lavielle

A general method for deriving closed reduced models of Hamiltonian dynamical systems is developed using techniques from optimization and statistical estimation. As in standard projection operator methods, a set of resolved variables is…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2015-10-05 Bruce Turkington

The continuous extension of a discrete random variable is amongst the computational methods used for estimation of multivariate normal copula-based models with discrete margins. Its advantage is that the likelihood can be derived…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-10 Aristidis K. Nikoloulopoulos

We construct a measure in the hamiltonian function level sets that is invariant under the hamiltonian flow for short times and flow preserving for arbitrarily long times. This allows a probabilistic approach to the study of hamiltonian…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2026-04-29 Luis A. Cedeño-Pérez , Alexis E. López-Velázquez

Generalising well in supervised learning tasks relies on correctly extrapolating the training data to a large region of the input space. One way to achieve this is to constrain the predictions to be invariant to transformations on the input…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-08-17 Mark van der Wilk , Matthias Bauer , ST John , James Hensman

Partition functions of probability distributions are important quantities for model evaluation and comparisons. We present a new method to compute partition functions of complex and multimodal distributions. Such distributions are often…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-05-27 David Carlson , Patrick Stinson , Ari Pakman , Liam Paninski

We propose a general and scalable approximate sampling strategy for probabilistic models with discrete variables. Our approach uses gradients of the likelihood function with respect to its discrete inputs to propose updates in a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-08 Will Grathwohl , Kevin Swersky , Milad Hashemi , David Duvenaud , Chris J. Maddison

A recently proposed class of models attempts to learn latent dynamics from high-dimensional observations, like images, using priors informed by Hamiltonian mechanics. While these models have important potential applications in areas like…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-12 Irina Higgins , Peter Wirnsberger , Andrew Jaegle , Aleksandar Botev

The hierarchical prior used in Latent Gaussian models (LGMs) induces a posterior geometry prone to frustrate inference algorithms. Marginalizing out the latent Gaussian variable using an integrated Laplace approximation removes the…

Computation · Statistics 2023-06-28 Charles C. Margossian

The marginal likelihood, or Bayesian evidence, is a crucial quantity for Bayesian model comparison but its computation can be challenging for complex models, even in parameters space of moderate dimension. The learned harmonic mean…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-27 Alicja Polanska , Jason D. McEwen

Randomized compilation protocols have recently attracted attention as alternatives to traditional deterministic Trotter-Suzuki methods, potentially reducing circuit depth and resource overhead. These protocols determine gate application…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-12-22 Yun-Zhuo Fan , Yu-Xia Wu , Dan-Bo Zhang

Latent variable models are increasingly used in economics for high-dimensional categorical data like text and surveys. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) with parallelized automatic differentiation for…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-03-04 Szymon Sacher , Laura Battaglia , Stephen Hansen

We formulate two classes of first-order algorithms more general than previously studied for minimizing smooth and strongly convex or, respectively, smooth and convex functions. We establish sufficient conditions, via new discrete Lyapunov…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-04-21 Penghui Fu , Zhiqiang Tan

Accurate and efficient estimation of rare events probabilities is of significant importance, since often the occurrences of such events have widespread impacts. The focus in this work is on precisely quantifying these probabilities, often…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-23 Konstantinos G. Papakonstantinou , Hamed Nikbakht , Elsayed Eshra

The efficient simulation of quantum dynamics and ground states is a central challenge in physics and a key frontier for quantum advantage. While short-time evolution in one-dimensional systems can often be simulated classically, extending…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-09-22 Yusen Wu , Yukun Zhang , Chuan Wang , Xiao Yuan

We show how the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm can sometimes be speeded up by "splitting" the Hamiltonian in a way that allows much of the movement around the state space to be done at low computational cost. One context where this is…

Computation · Statistics 2012-07-17 Babak Shahbaba , Shiwei Lan , Wesley O. Johnson , Radford M. Neal

We consider the outstanding problem of sampling from an unnormalized density that may be non-log-concave and multimodal. To enhance the performance of simple Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, techniques of annealing type have been…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-18 Wei Guo , Molei Tao , Yongxin Chen

Likelihood-free inference involves inferring parameter values given observed data and a simulator model. The simulator is computer code which takes parameters, performs stochastic calculations, and outputs simulated data. In this work, we…

Computation · Statistics 2023-01-30 Dennis Prangle , Cecilia Viscardi

Products of Hidden Markov Models(PoHMMs) are an interesting class of generative models which have received little attention since their introduction. This maybe in part due to their more computationally expensive gradient-based learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-05-14 Graham W Taylor , Geoffrey E. Hinton