Related papers: Nonparametric Bayesian Approaches to Non-homogeneo…
Parameter inference is a fundamental problem in data-driven modeling. Given observed data that is believed to be a realization of some parameterized model, the aim is to find parameter values that are able to explain the observed data. In…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are widely applied in studies where a discrete-valued process of interest is observed indirectly. They have for example been used to model behaviour from human and animal tracking data, disease status from…
We propose a methodology for modeling and comparing probability distributions within a Bayesian nonparametric framework. Building on dependent normalized random measures, we consider a prior distribution for a collection of discrete random…
We consider a hidden Markov model, where the signal process, given by a diffusion, is only indirectly observed through some noisy measurements. The article develops a variational method for approximating the hidden states of the signal…
Gaussian process is a theoretically appealing model for nonparametric analysis, but its computational cumbersomeness hinders its use in large scale and the existing reduced-rank solutions are usually heuristic. In this work, we propose a…
This study extends the Bayesian nonparametric instrumental variable regression model to determine the structural effects of covariates on the conditional quantile of the response variable. The error distribution is nonparametrically…
Genetic sequence data are well described by hidden Markov models (HMMs) in which latent states correspond to clusters of similar mutation patterns. Theory from statistical genetics suggests that these HMMs are nonhomogeneous (their…
Bayesian inference in hidden Markov models (HMMs) can be challenging due to the presence of multimodality in the likelihood function, and consequently in the joint posterior distribution, even after correcting for label switching. The…
We propose a flexible nonparametric Bayesian modelling framework for multivariate time series of count data based on tensor factorisations. Our models can be viewed as infinite state space Markov chains of known maximal order with…
Prominent features of simulated moving bed (SMB) chromatography processes in the downstream processing is based on the determination of operating conditions. However, effects of different types of uncertainties have to be studied and…
This paper considers the problem of computing Bayesian estimates of both states and model parameters for nonlinear state-space models. Generally, this problem does not have a tractable solution and approximations must be utilised. In this…
Factorial hidden Markov models (FHMMs) are powerful tools of modeling sequential data. Learning FHMMs yields a challenging simultaneous model selection issue, i.e., selecting the number of multiple Markov chains and the dimensionality of…
We present a Bayesian nonparametric system reliability model which scales well and provides a great deal of flexibility in modeling. The Bayesian approach naturally handles the disparate amounts of component and subsystem data that may…
We develop a Bayesian nonparametric autoregressive model applied to flexibly estimate general transition densities exhibiting nonlinear lag dependence. Our approach is related to Bayesian density regression using Dirichlet process mixtures,…
This report introduces a parsimonious structure for mixture of autoregressive models, where the weighting coefficients are determined through latent random variables as functions of all past observations. These variables follow a hidden…
There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the ubiquitous Hidden Markov Model for learning from sequential and time-series data. However, in…
Conformal inference is a statistical method used to construct prediction sets for point predictors, providing reliable uncertainty quantification with probability guarantees. This method utilizes historical labeled data to estimate the…
Spectrum sensing in a large-scale heterogeneous network is very challenging as it usually requires a large number of static secondary users (SUs) to obtain the global spectrum states. To tackle this problem, in this paper, we propose a new…
A penalized maximum likelihood estimation approach is proposed for discrete-time hidden Markov models where covariates affect the observed responses and serial dependence is considered. The proposed penalized maximum likelihood method…
We consider finite state space stationary hidden Markov models (HMMs) in the situation where the number of hidden states is unknown. We provide a frequentist asymptotic evaluation of Bayesian analysis methods. Our main result gives…