Related papers: Some Refinements of Large Deviation Tail Probabili…
The extrapolation of extremes to values beyond the span of stationary univariate historical data is considered from Bayesian and Frequentist perspectives. The intention is to make predictions which in some sense "preserve probability". A…
An approximation method is presented for probabilistic inference with continuous random variables. These problems can arise in many practical problems, in particular where there are "second order" probabilities. The approximation, based on…
In this paper, we compare two numerical methods for approximating the probability that the sum of dependent regularly varying random variables exceeds a high threshold under Archimedean copula models. The first method is based on…
We consider multivariate extreme value statistics for independent but nonidentically distributed random vectors. In particular, the data may have varying tail copulas and also heteroscedastic marginal distributions. Assuming smoothly…
In this paper, we will give a sufficient condition for a non-negative random variable $X$ to be heavy tailed by investigating the Laplace-Stieltjes transform of the probability distribution function. We focus on the relation between the…
We present an overview of possible reasons for the appearance of heavy-tailed distributions in applications to the natural sciences. These distributions include the laws of Pareto, Lotka, and some new ones. The reasons are illustrated using…
The purpose of this paper is to show that the use of heavy-tailed distributions in Financial problems is theoretically baseless and can lead to significant misunderstandings. The reason for this the authors see in an incorrect…
The paper contains results in three areas: First we present a general estimate for tail probabilities of Gaussian quadratic forms with known expectation and variance. Thereafter we analyze the distribution of norms of complex Gaussian…
We develop a general technique for bounding the tail of the total variation distance between the empirical and the true distributions over countable sets. Our methods sharpen a deviation bound of Devroye (1983) for distributions over finite…
In a general class of one dimensional random differential equation the convergence of the distribution function of the solution to stationary state distribution is studied. In particular it is proved the boundedness respectively the…
Programs with randomization constructs is an active research topic, especially after the recent introduction of martingale-based analysis methods for their termination and runtimes. Unlike most of the existing works that focus on proving…
Following a strategy recently developed by Ivan Nourdin and Giovanni Peccati, we provide a general technique to compare the tail of a given random variable to that of a reference distribution. This enables us to give concrete conditions to…
Starting from one-point tail bounds, we establish an upper tail large deviation principle for the directed landscape at the metric level. Metrics of finite rate are in one-to-one correspondence with measures supported on a set of countably…
Sums of independent, bounded random variables concentrate around their expectation approximately as well a Gaussian of the same variance. Well known results of this form include the Bernstein, Hoeffding, and Chernoff inequalities and many…
This is Part II of our work about random tensor inequalities and tail bounds for bivariate random tensor means. After reviewing basic facts about random tensors, we first consider tail bounds with more general connection functions. Then, a…
We consider a multivariate distributional recursion of sum-type as arising in the probabilistic analysis of algorithms and random trees. We prove an upper tail bound for the solution using Chernoff's bounding technique by estimating the…
In this paper, we revisit the proof of the large deviations principle of Wiener chaoses partially given by Borel, and then by Ledoux in its full form. We show that some heavy-tail phenomena observed in large deviations can be explained by…
For the basic case of $L_2$ optimal transport between two probability measures on a Euclidean space, the regularity of the coupling measure and the transport map in the tail regions of these measures is studied. For this purpose, Robert…
We study the fluctuations, in the large deviations regime, of the longest increasing subsequence of a random i.i.d. sample on the unit square. In particular, our results yield the precise upper and lower exponential tails for the length of…
Bias reduction in tail estimation has received considerable interest in extreme value analysis. Estimation methods that minimize the bias while keeping the mean squared error (MSE) under control, are especially useful when applying…