Related papers: Super-exponential bubbles in lab experiments: evid…

I study the behavior and the performance of the long-term forecasts issued by financial analysts with respect to the Extrapolation Hypothesis. That hypothesis states that investors, extrapolating from the firms' recent performances, are too…

We study a generic model for self-referential behaviour in financial markets, where agents attempt to use some (possibly fictitious) causal correlations between a certain quantitative information and the price itself. This correlation is…

Here we present a possible solution to the apparent discrepancy between the observed properties of LMC bubbles and the standard, constant density bubble model. A two-dimensional model of a wind-driven bubble expanding from a flattened giant…

An expert seller chooses an experiment to influence a client's purchasing decision, but may manipulate the experiment result for personal gain. When credibility surpasses a critical threshold, the expert chooses a fully-revealing experiment…

In speculative markets, risk-free profit opportunities are eliminated by traders exploiting them. Markets are therefore often described as "informationally efficient", rapidly removing predictable price changes, and leaving only residual…

Frozen water might appear opaque since gas bubbles can get trapped in the ice during the freezing process. They nucleate and then grow near the advancing solidification front, due to the formation of a gas supersaturation region in its…

As a firm varies the price of a product, consumers exhibit reference effects, making purchase decisions based not only on the prevailing price but also the product's price history. We consider the problem of learning such behavioral…

The problem of investing into a cryptocurrency market requires good understanding of the processes that regulate the price of the currency. In this paper we offer a view of a cryptocurrency market as an environment for realization of a…

The formation, growth and detachment of gas bubbles on electrodes are omnipresent in electrolysis and other gas-producing chemical processes. To better understand their role in the mass transfer efficiency, we perform experiments involving…

Information extracted from electrohysterography recordings could potentially prove to be an interesting additional source of information to estimate the risk on preterm birth. Recently, a large number of studies have reported near-perfect…

Using Trades and Quotes data from the Paris stock market, we show that the random walk nature of traded prices results from a very delicate interplay between two opposite tendencies: long-range correlated market orders that lead to…

Controlled experiments (A/B tests or randomized field experiments) are the de facto standard to make data-driven decisions when implementing changes and observing customer responses. The methodology to analyze such experiments should be…

We define causal estimands for experiments on single time series, extending the potential outcome framework to dealing with temporal data. Our approach allows the estimation of some of these estimands and exact randomization based p-values…

We consider upper exponential bounds for the probability of the event that an absolute deviation of sample mean from mathematical expectation p is bigger comparing with some ordered level epsilon. These bounds include 2 coefficients {alpha,…

We introduce a simple generalization of rational bubble models which removes the fundamental problem discovered by [Lux and Sornette, 1999] that the distribution of returns is a power law with exponent less than 1, in contradiction with…

As we show using the notion of equilibrium in the theory of infinite sequential games, bubbles and escalations are rational for economic and environmental agents, who believe in an infinite world. This goes against a vision of a self…

We introduce a simple framework in which market participants update their prior about an efficient price with a model-based learning process. We show that exponential intensities for the arrival of aggressive orders arise naturally in this…

In this paper, we consider a two-qubit system undergoing continuous-time measurements. In presence of multiple channels, we provide sufficient conditions on the continuous feedback control law ensuring almost sure exponential convergence to…

We calculate bubble nucleation rates in a Lennard-Jones fluid through explicit molecular dynamics simulations. Our approach -- based on a recent free energy method (dubbed reweighted Jarzynski sampling), transition state theory, and a…

Bayesian model comparison is often based on the posterior distribution over the set of compared models. This distribution is often observed to concentrate on a single model even when other measures of model fit or forecasting ability…