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Generalized P\'olya urns with non-linear feedback are an established probabilistic model to describe the dynamics of growth processes with reinforcement, a generic example being competition of agents in evolving markets. It is well known…
It has long been noticed that the efficacy observed in small early phase studies is generally better than that observed in later larger studies. Historically, the inflation of the efficacy results from early proof-of-concept studies is…
It has recently been suggested that Planck scale physics may effect the evolution of cosmological fluctuations in the early stages of cosmological inflation in a non-trivial way, leading to an excited state for modes whose wavelength is…
We calculate bubble-nucleation rates for (2+1)-dimensional scalar theories at high temperature. Our approach is based on the notion of a real coarse-grained potential. The region of applicability of our method is determined through internal…
This article provides a self-contained overview of the theory of rational asset price bubbles. We cover topics from basic definitions, properties, and classical results to frontier research, with an emphasis on bubbles attached to real…
In this work we study the imprints of bubble nucleation on primordial inflationary perturbations. We assume that the bubble is formed via the tunneling of a spectator field from the false vacuum of its potential to its true vacuum. We…
Using a recently introduced rational expectation model of bubbles, based on the interplay between stochasticity and positive feedbacks of prices on returns and volatility, we develop a new methodology to test how this model classifies 9…
As a typical representation of complex networks studied relatively thoroughly, financial market presents some special details, such as its nonconservation and opinions spreading. In this model, agents congregate to form some clusters, which…
In this paper, we study the positivity and (uniform) exponential stability of a large class of perturbed semigroups. Our approach is essentially based on the feedback theory of infinite-dimensional linear systems. The obtained results are…
We consider a simple stochastic differential equation for modeling bubbles in social context. A prime example is bubbles in asset pricing, but similar mechanisms may control a range of social phenomena driven by psychological factors (for…
By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii) behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii) the mathematical and statistical physics of bifurcations and phase transitions, the…
By investigating nonfungible tokens (NFTs), we provide the first systematic study of retail investor behavior through asset bubbles. Given that NFTs are recorded in public blockchains, we are able to track investor behavior over time,…
We describe human-subject laboratory experiments on probabilistic auctions based on previously proposed auction protocols involving the simulated manipulation and communication of quantum states. These auctions are probabilistic in…
A deterministic trading strategy by a representative investor on a single market asset, which generates complex and realistic returns with its first four moments similar to the empirical values of European stock indices, is used to simulate…
Feedback delays are inevitable in real-world multi-agent learning. They are known to severely degrade performance, and the convergence rate under delayed feedback is still unclear, even for bilinear games. This paper derives the rate of…
Confidence is an essential ingredient of success in a wide range of domains ranging from job performance and mental health, to sports, business, and combat. Some authors have suggested that not just confidence but overconfidence-believing…
Large-scale randomized experiments, sometimes called A/B tests, are increasingly prevalent in many industries. Though such experiments are often analyzed via frequentist $t$-tests, arguably such analyses are deficient: $p$-values are hard…
This paper develops a model of reference-dependent assessment of subjective beliefs in which loss-averse people optimally choose the expectation as the reference point to balance the current felicity from the optimistic anticipation and the…
In gas evolving electrolysis, bubbles grow at electrodes due to a diffusive influx from oversaturation generated locally in the electrolyte by the electrode reaction. When considering electrodes of micrometer-size resembling catalytic…
The recent surge in valuations among AI related firms has renewed concerns that markets may be entering a new phase of speculative exuberance, especially in the technology and semiconductor sectors at the center of the AI investment wave.…