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We study time-dependent mediators in survival analysis using a treatment separation approach due to Didelez [2019] and based on earlier work by Robins and Richardson [2011]. This approach avoids nested counterfactuals and crossworld…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-10 Søren Wengel Mogensen , Odd O. Aalen , Susanne Strohmaier

We consider mediated effects of an exposure, X on an outcome, Y, via a mediator, M, under no unmeasured confounding assumptions in the setting where models for the conditional expectation of the mediator and outcome are partially linear. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-08 Oliver Hines , Stijn Vansteelandt , Karla Diaz-Ordaz

Mediation analysis is a statistical approach that can provide insights regarding the intermediary processes by which an intervention or exposure affects a given outcome. Mediation analyses rose to prominence, particularly in social science…

Causal mediation analysis is a powerful tool for disentangling the total effect of a treatment into its direct effect on the outcome and its indirect effect mediated through an intermediate variable. However, in observational studies,…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-28 Yuhao Deng , Haoyu Wei , Zhongzhe Ouyang

Mediation analysis, which started with Baron and Kenny (1986), is used extensively by applied researchers. Indirect and direct effects are the part of a treatment effect that is mediated by a covariate and the part that is not. Subsequent…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-17 Judith J. Lok , Ronald J. Bosch

Mediation analysis with contemporaneously observed multiple mediators is an important area of causal inference. Recent approaches for multiple mediators are often based on parametric models and thus may suffer from model misspecification.…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-30 Samrat Roy , Michael J. Daniels , Brendan J. Kelly , Jason Roy

Contrasting marginal counterfactual survival curves across treatment arms is an effective and popular approach for inferring the causal effect of an intervention on a right-censored time-to-event outcome. A key challenge to drawing such…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-29 Andrew Ying , Yifan Cui , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

Estimating the effect of intervention from observational data while accounting for confounding variables is a key task in causal inference. Oftentimes, the confounders are unobserved, but we have access to large amounts of additional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-13 Shachi Deshpande , Kaiwen Wang , Dhruv Sreenivas , Zheng Li , Volodymyr Kuleshov

In longitudinal studies where units are embedded in space or a social network, interference may arise, meaning that a unit's outcome can depend on treatment histories of others. The presence of interference poses significant challenges for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-26 Ye Wang , Michael Jetsupphasuk

Causal graphs may inform covariate adjustment for estimating causal effects and improve estimation efficiency by exploiting the graphical structure. In many applications, however, the target causal parameter may not be point-identified due…

This paper introduces a simple framework of counterfactual estimation for causal inference with time-series cross-sectional data, in which we estimate the average treatment effect on the treated by directly imputing counterfactual outcomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-16 Licheng Liu , Ye Wang , Yiqing Xu

The presence of intermediate confounders, also called recanting witnesses, is a fundamental challenge to the investigation of causal mechanisms in mediation analysis, preventing the identification of natural path-specific effects. Proposed…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-10 Tat-Thang Vo , Nicholas Williams , Richard Liu , Kara E. Rudolph , Ivan Dıaz

Causal mediation analysis has been extended to estimate path-specific effects with multiple intermediate variables, isolating treatment effects through a mediator of interest while excluding pathways through its ancestors. Such analyses…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Yang Bai , Sihan Wu , Baoluo Sun , Yifan Cui

Many open problems in machine learning are intrinsically related to causality, however, the use of causal analysis in machine learning is still in its early stage. Within a general reinforcement learning setting, we consider the problem of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-18 Tue Herlau , Rasmus Larsen

Proximal causal inference was recently proposed as a framework to identify causal effects from observational data in the presence of hidden confounders for which proxies are available. In this paper, we extend the proximal causal inference…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-27 AmirEmad Ghassami , Alan Yang , Ilya Shpitser , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

The proximal causal inference framework enables the identification and estimation of causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding by leveraging two disjoint sets of observed strong proxies: negative control treatments and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-16 Antonio Olivas-Martinez , Peter B. Gilbert , Andrea Rotnitzky

In applications, quantities of interest are often modelled in equilibrium or an equilibrium solution is sought. The presence of confounding makes causal inference in this setting challenging. We provide interpretable graphical models for…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-27 Kai Z. Teh , Kayvan Sadeghi , Terry Soo

Various methods have recently been proposed to estimate causal effects with confidence intervals that are uniformly valid over a set of data generating processes when high-dimensional nuisance models are estimated by post-model-selection or…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Niloofar Moosavi , Tetiana Gorbach , Xavier de Luna

Understanding predictions made by deep neural networks is notoriously difficult, but also crucial to their dissemination. As all machine learning based methods, they are as good as their training data, and can also capture unwanted biases.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-11-15 Amir Feder , Nadav Oved , Uri Shalit , Roi Reichart

Several frameworks have been proposed for studying causal mediation analysis. What these frameworks have in common is that they all make assumptions for point identifications that can be violated even when treatment is randomized. When a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-23 Marie S. Breum , Vanessa Didelez , Erin E. Gabriel , Michael C. Sachs