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Determining phenotype from genetic data is a fundamental challenge. Influenza A viruses undergo rapid antigenic drift and identification of emerging antigenic variants is critical to the vaccine selection process. Using former seasonal…

Most antigenically novel and evolutionarily successful strains of seasonal influenza A (H3N2) originate in East, South, and Southeast Asia. To understand this pattern, we simulated the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of influenza in a…

Viral zoonoses have emerged as the key drivers of recent pandemics. Human infection by zoonotic viruses are either spillover events -- isolated infections that fail to cause a widespread contagion -- or species jumps, where successful…

Many viruses evolve rapidly. For example, hemagglutinin of the H3N2 influenza A virus evolves to escape antibody binding. This evolution of the H3N2 virus means that people who have previously been exposed to an influenza strain may be…

Understanding how genetic changes allow emerging virus strains to escape the protection afforded by vaccination is vital for the maintenance of effective vaccines. In the current work, we use structural and phylogenetic differences between…

Despite having triggered devastating pandemics in the past, our ability to quantitatively assess the emergence potential of individual strains of animal influenza viruses remains limited. This study introduces Emergenet, a tool to infer a…

Since its emergence in 1968, influenza A (H3N2) has evolved extensively in genotype and antigenic phenotype. Antigenic evolution occurs in the context of a two-dimensional 'antigenic map', while genetic evolution shows a characteristic…

Public health surveillance systems often fail to detect emerging infectious diseases, particularly in resource limited settings. By integrating relevant clinical and internet-source data, we can close critical gaps in coverage and…

The Influenza virus can be considered as one of the most severe viruses that can infect multiple species with often fatal consequences to the hosts. The Hemagglutinin (HA) gene of the virus can be a target for antiviral drug development…

The emerging threat of a human pandemic caused by the H5N1 avian influenza virus strain magnifies the need for controlling the incidence of H5N1 infection in domestic bird populations. Culling is one of the most widely used control measures…

We predict vaccine efficacy with a measure of antigenic distance between influenza A(H3N2) and candidate vaccine viruses based on amino acid substitutions in the dominant epitopes. In 2016-2017, our model predicts 19% efficacy compared to…

A prompt public health response to a new epidemic relies on the ability to monitor and predict its evolution in real time as data accumulate. The 2009 A/H1N1 outbreak in the UK revealed pandemic data as noisy, contaminated, potentially…

The Influenza type A virus can be considered as one of the most severe viruses that can infect multiple species with often fatal consequences to the hosts. The Haemagglutinin (HA) gene of the virus has the potential to be a target for…

Between pandemics, the influenza virus exhibits periods of incremental evolution via a process known as antigenic drift. This process gives rise to a sequence of strains of the pathogen that are continuously replaced by newer strains,…

Early prediction of the prevalence of influenza reduces its impact. Various studies have been conducted to predict the number of influenza-infected people. However, these studies are not highly accurate especially in the distant future such…

In March and early April 2013, a new avian-origin influenza A (H7N9) virus (A-OIV) emerged in the eastern China. During the first week of April, the 18 infection cases have been confirmed and 6 people have died since March. This virus has…

Phylogenetic analyses based on small to moderately sized sets of sequential data lead to overestimating mutation rates in influenza hemagglutinin (HA) by at least an order of magnitude. Two major underlying reasons are: the incomplete…

More virulent strains of influenza virus subtypes H1N1 appeared widely in 2007 and H3N2 in 2011, and especially 2013-4, when the effectiveness of the H3N2 vaccine decreased nearly to zero. The amino acid differences of neuraminidase from…

For nearly a century, the initial reproduction number (R0) has been used as a one number summary to compare outbreaks of infectious disease, yet there is no `standard' estimator for R0. Difficulties in estimating R0 arise both from how a…

The influenza virus hemagglutinin is an important part of the virus attachment to the host cells. The hemagglutinin proteins are one of the genetic regions of the virus with a high potential for mutations. Due to the importance of…