Related papers: Quantifying Limits to Detection of Early Warning f…

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential…

Catastrophic transitions, where a system shifts abruptly between alternate steady states, are a generic feature of many nonlinear systems. Recently these regime shift were suggested as the mechanism underlies many ecological catastrophes,…

A broad range of natural and social systems from human microbiome to financial markets can go through critical transitions, where the system suddenly collapses to another stable configuration. Critical transitions can be unexpected, with…

In this topical review, we present a brief overview of the different methods and measures to detect the occurrence of critical transitions in complex systems. We start by introducing the mechanisms that trigger critical transitions, and how…

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on…

Many real world systems are at risk of undergoing critical transitions, leading to sudden qualitative and sometimes irreversible regime shifts. The development of early warning signals is recognized as a major challenge. Recent progress…

Among the properties that are common to complex systems, the presence of critical thresholds in the dynamics of the system is one of the most important. Recently, there has been interest in the universalities that occur in the behavior of…

A variety of real world and experimental systems can display a drastic regime shift, as the evolution in one its paramaters crosses a threshold value. Assimilation of such a transition with a bifurcation has allowed to identify so called…

The potential for complex systems to exhibit tipping points in which an equilibrium state undergoes a sudden and often irreversible shift is well established, but prediction of these events using standard forecast modeling techniques is…

There is growing interest in anticipating critical transitions in natural systems, often pursued through statistical detection of early warning signals associated with dynamical bifurcations. In stochastic dynamical systems, such signals…

Early-warning indicators (increase of autocorrelation and variance) are commonly applied to time series data to try and detect tipping points of real-world systems. The theory behind these indicators originates from approximating the…

The design of reliable indicators to anticipate critical transitions in complex systems is an im portant task in order to detect a coming sudden regime shift and to take action in order to either prevent it or mitigate its consequences. We…

Maintaining stability in feedback systems, from aircraft and autonomous robots to biological and physiological systems, relies on monitoring their behavior and continuously adjusting their inputs. Incremental damage can make such control…

The use of critical slowing down as an early warning indicator for regime switching in observations from stochastic environments and noisy dynamical models has been widely studied and implemented in recent years. Some systems, however, have…

Detecting early warning indicators for abrupt dynamical transitions in complex systems or high-dimensional observation data is essential in many real-world applications, such as brain diseases, natural disasters, and engineering…

Social ecological systems are often difficult to investigate and manage because of their inherent complexity1. Small variations in external drivers can lead to abrupt changes associated with instabilities and bifurcations in the underlying…

Financial markets of emerging economies are vulnerable to extreme and cascading information spillovers, surges, sudden stops and reversals. With this in mind, we develop a new online early warning system (EWS) to detect what is referred to…

The ability to reliably predict critical transitions in dynamical systems is a long-standing goal of diverse scientific communities. Previous work focused on early warning signals related to local bifurcations (critical slowing down) and…

Change-point detection methods are proposed for the case of temporary failures, or transient changes, when an unexpected disorder is ultimately followed by a readjustment and return to the initial state. A base distribution of the…

Many natural systems undergo critical transitions, i.e. sudden shifts from one dynamical regime to another. In the climate system, the atmospheric boundary layer can experience sudden transitions between fully turbulent states and…