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We derive the adjoint path-kernel method for computing parameter-gradients (linear responses) of SDEs. Its cost is almost independent of the number of parameters, and it works for non-hyperbolic systems with parameter-controlled…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-11 Angxiu Ni

Data assimilation (DA) provides a general framework for estimation in dynamical systems based on the concepts of Bayesian inference. This constitutes a common basis for the different linear and nonlinear filtering and smoothing techniques…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-08 Tarek Diaa-Eldeen , Marcus Krogh Nielsen , Carl Fredrik Berg , Morten Hovd , John Bagterp Jørgensen

Enhancement of the predictive power and robustness of nonlinear population dynamics models allows ecologists to make more reliable forecasts about species' long term survival. However, the limited availability of detailed ecological data,…

Pattern Formation and Solitons · Physics 2025-04-18 Indrajyoti Gaine , Malay Banerjee

We propose an improved method for estimating partial differential equations and delay partial differential equations from data, using Bayesian optimization and the Bayesian information criterion to automatically find suitable…

Computational Physics · Physics 2026-02-23 Oliver Mai , Tim W. Kroll , Uwe Thiele , Oliver Kamps

We present a deep learning emulator for stochastic and chaotic spatio-temporal systems, explicitly conditioned on the parameter values of the underlying partial differential equations (PDEs). Our approach involves pre-training the model on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-12 Ira J. S. Shokar , Rich R. Kerswell , Peter H. Haynes

Physics-informed methods have gained a great success in analyzing data with partial differential equation (PDE) constraints, which are ubiquitous when modeling dynamical systems. Different from the common penalty-based approach, this work…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-08 Tongyu Li , Fang Yao

In this paper, we propose a semi-parametric model for autonomous nonlinear dynamical systems and devise an estimation procedure for model fitting. This model incorporates subject-specific effects and can be viewed as a nonlinear…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-06-19 Debashis Paul , Jie Peng , Prabir Burman

Many real-world systems modeled using partial differential equations (PDEs) involve unknown parameters that must be estimated from limited, noisy system observations. While typically assumed to be constants, some of these unobserved…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-19 Andrea Arnold

Data assimilation algorithms estimate the state of a dynamical system from partial observations, where the successful performance of these algorithms hinges on costly parameter tuning and on employing an accurate model for the dynamics.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-24 Melissa Adrian , Daniel Sanz-Alonso , Rebecca Willett

Spatially distributed problems are often approximately modelled in terms of partial differential equations (PDEs) for appropriate coarse-grained quantities (e.g. concentrations). The derivation of accurate such PDEs starting from finer…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2009-11-13 Liang Qiao , Radek Erban , C. T. Kelley , Ioannis G. Kevrekidis

4D-variational data assimilation is applied to the Lorenz '63 model to introduce a new method for parameter estimation in chaotic climate models. The approach aims to optimise an Earth system model (ESM), for which no adjoint exists, by…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-04-18 Philip David Kennedy , Abhirup Banerjee , Armin Köhl , Detlef Stammer

In this paper we propose a solution to the problem of parameter estimation of nonlinearly parameterized regressions--continuous or discrete time--and apply it for system identification and adaptive control. We restrict our attention to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-10-18 Romeo Ortega , Vladislav Gromov , Emmanuel Nuño , Anton Pyrkin , Jose Guadalupe Romero

This work proposes stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) as a practical tool to replicate clustering effects of more detailed particle-based dynamics. Inspired by membrane-mediated receptor dynamics on cell surfaces, we…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2025-01-22 Nathalie Wehlitz , Mohsen Sadeghi , Alberto Montefusco , Christof Schütte , Grigorios A. Pavliotis , Stefanie Winkelmann

The measured spatiotemporal response of various physical processes is utilized to infer the governing partial differential equations (PDEs). We propose SimultaNeous Basis Function Approximation and Parameter Estimation (SNAPE), a technique…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-17 Sutanu Bhowmick , Satish Nagarajaiah

Macroscopic models for spatially extended systems under random influences are often described by stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). Some techniques for understanding solutions of such equations, such as estimating…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2009-03-27 Jinqiao Duan

We consider the problem of estimating parameters of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with discrete-time observations that are either completely or partially observed. The transition density between two observations is generally…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-09-09 Libo Sun , Chihoon Lee , Jennifer A. Hoeting

We study prediction-assimilation systems, which have become routine in meteorology and oceanography and are rapidly spreading to other areas of the geosciences and of continuum physics. The long-term, nonlinear stability of such a system…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-11-13 Alberto Carrassi , Michael Ghil , Anna Trevisan , Francesco Uboldi

We propose a semiparametric model for autonomous nonlinear dynamical systems and devise an estimation procedure for model fitting. This model incorporates subject-specific effects and can be viewed as a nonlinear semiparametric mixed…

Applications · Statistics 2011-12-01 Debashis Paul , Jie Peng , Prabir Burman

Reaction-diffusion models are used to describe systems in fields as diverse as physics, chemistry, ecology and biology. The fundamental quantities in such models are individual entities such as atoms and molecules, bacteria, cells or…

Computational Physics · Physics 2016-03-02 Fabian Spill , Pilar Guerrero , Tomas Alarcon , Philip K. Maini , Helen Byrne

Reaction rate equations are ordinary differential equations that are frequently used to describe deterministic chemical kinetics at the macroscopic scale. At the microscopic scale, the chemical kinetics is stochastic and can be captured by…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2021-05-12 Ariana Torres-Knoop , Ivan Kryven