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Given a collection of features available for inclusion in a predictive model, it may be of interest to quantify the relative importance of a subset of features for the prediction task at hand. For example, in HIV vaccine trials, participant…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-27 Charles J. Wolock , Peter B. Gilbert , Noah Simon , Marco Carone

The advent and subsequent widespread availability of preventive vaccines has altered the course of public health over the past century. Despite this success, effective vaccines to prevent many high-burden diseases, including HIV, have been…

In randomized trials and observational studies, it is often necessary to evaluate the extent to which an intervention affects a time-to-event outcome, which is only partially observed due to right censoring. For instance, in infectious…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-16 Yutong Jin , Peter B. Gilbert , Aaron Hudson

We develop semiparametric methods for estimating subgroup-specific relative vaccine efficacy against multiple viral strains in a partially vaccinated population. Focusing on observational case-only studies, we address informative…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-12 Lars van der Laan , Peter B. Gilbert

In observational studies, the observed association between an exposure and outcome of interest may be distorted by unobserved confounding. Causal sensitivity analysis can be used to assess the robustness of observed associations to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-04 Rui Hu , Ted Westling

The test-negative design has become popular for evaluating the effectiveness of post-licensure vaccines using observational data. In addition to its logistical convenience on data collection, the design is also believed to control for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-15 Soumyabrata Kundu , Peng Ding , Jingshu Wang , Xinran Li

We address discrete-marks survival analysis, also known as categorical sieve analysis, for a setting of a randomized placebo-controlled treatment intervention to prevent infection by a pathogen to which multiple exposures are possible, with…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-01-06 Paul T. Edlefsen

For time-to-event data with finitely many competing risks, the proportional hazards model has been a popular tool for relating the cause-specific outcomes to covariates [Prentice et al. Biometrics 34 (1978) 541--554]. This article studies…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-03-04 Yanqing Sun , Peter B. Gilbert , Ian W. McKeague

Interval-censored competing risks data arise when each study subject may experience an event or failure from one of several causes and the failure time is not observed exactly but rather known to lie in an interval between two successive…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-03-02 Lu Mao , D. Y. Lin , Donglin Zeng

Balanced representation learning methods have been applied successfully to counterfactual inference from observational data. However, approaches that account for survival outcomes are relatively limited. Survival data are frequently…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-04 Paidamoyo Chapfuwa , Serge Assaad , Shuxi Zeng , Michael J. Pencina , Lawrence Carin , Ricardo Henao

It is often of interest to study the association between covariates and the cumulative incidence of a right-censored time-to-event outcome. When time-varying covariates are measured on a fixed discrete time scale, it is desirable to account…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-28 Hongxiang Qiu , Marco Carone , Alex Luedtke , Peter B. Gilbert

Vaccine randomized trials are typically designed to be blinded, ensuring that the estimated vaccine efficacy (VE) reflects the immunological effect of the vaccine. When blinding is broken, however, the estimated VE reflects not only the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-12 Rachel Axelrod , Uri Obolski , Daniel Nevo

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of variational inference in latent variable models for survival analysis, emphasizing the distinctive challenges associated with applying variational methods to survival data. We identify a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-05 Chuanhui Liu , Xiao Wang

Many epidemiological and clinical studies aim at analyzing a time-to-event endpoint. A common complication is right censoring. In some cases, it arises because subjects are still surviving after the study terminates or move out of the study…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-10 Andrew Ying

Survival analysis holds a crucial role across diverse disciplines, such as economics, engineering and healthcare. It empowers researchers to analyze both time-invariant and time-varying data, encompassing phenomena like customer churn,…

Inferring treatment effects on a survival time outcome based on data from an observational study is challenging due to the presence of censoring and possible confounding. An additional challenge occurs when a unit's treatment affects the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-13 Chanhwa Lee , Donglin Zeng , Michael Emch , John D. Clemens , Michael G. Hudgens

Survival analysis is a type of semi-supervised ranking task where the target output (the survival time) is often right-censored. Utilizing this information is a challenge because it is not obvious how to correctly incorporate these censored…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-06-12 Margaux Luck , Tristan Sylvain , Joseph Paul Cohen , Heloise Cardinal , Andrea Lodi , Yoshua Bengio

In this paper, we demonstrate that a new measure of evidence we developed called the Dempster-Shafer p-value which allow for insights and interpretations which retain most of the structure of the p-value while covering for some of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-28 Kentaro Hoffman , Kai Zhang , Tyler McCormick , Jan Hannig

Studies of HPV vaccine efficacy usually record infections with vaccine targeted and nontargeted strains. Contrary to blinded randomized controlled trials, confounding bias can be a threat and risk compensation may occur in observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-13 Lola Etievant

Effectiveness of immune-oncology chemotherapies has been presented in recent clinical trials. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of the survival functions of the immune therapy and the control often suggested the presence of the lag-time until the…

Applications · Statistics 2024-07-26 Hisato Sunami , Satoshi Hattori
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