Related papers: Fixed-smoothing asymptotics for time series
In this paper we study the large deviations of time averaged mean square displacement (TAMSD) for Gaussian processes. The theory of large deviations is related to the exponential decay of probabilities of large fluctuations in random…
In this paper, we introduce a new method for testing the stationarity of time series, where the test statistic is obtained from measuring and maximising the difference in the second-order structure over pairs of randomly drawn intervals.…
This paper revisits a fundamental problem in statistical inference from a non-asymptotic theoretical viewpoint $\unicode{x2013}$ the construction of confidence sets. We establish a finite-sample bound for the estimator, characterizing its…
We develop a method for probabilistic prediction of extreme value hot-spots in a spatio-temporal framework, tailored to big datasets containing important gaps. In this setting, direct calculation of summaries from data, such as the minimum…
Approximately unbiased tests based on bootstrap probabilities are considered for the exponential family of distributions with unknown expectation parameter vector, where the null hypothesis is represented as an arbitrary-shaped region with…
We give two asymptotic results for the empirical distance covariance on separable metric spaces without any iid assumption on the samples. In particular, we show the almost sure convergence of the empirical distance covariance for any…
Bayesian inference provides a framework to combine various model components with shared parameters, allowing joint uncertainty estimation and the use of all available data sources. Unfortunately, misspecification of any part of the model…
We study the distribution of the length of longest increasing subsequences in random permutations of $n$ integers as $n$ grows large and establish an asymptotic expansion in powers of $n^{-1/3}$. Whilst the limit law was already shown by…
Generalized Linear Model (or GLM) extends the ordinary linear regression by linking the mean of the response variable to covariates through appropriate link functions. GLM is widely used in the analysis of datasets arising from diverse…
We study the posterior distribution of the Bayesian multiple change-point regression problem when the number and the locations of the change-points are unknown. While it is relatively easy to apply the general theory to obtain the…
This paper discusses the asymptotic behaviour of the number of descents in a random signed permutation and its inverse, which was posed as an open problem by Chatterjee and Diaconis in a recent publication. For that purpose, we generalize…
We put forward a new Bayesian modeling strategy for spatiotemporal count data that enables efficient posterior sampling. Most previous models for such data decompose logarithms of the response Poisson rates into fixed effects and spatial…
The noncentral Wishart distribution has become more mainstream in statistics as the prevalence of applications involving sample covariances with underlying multivariate Gaussian populations as dramatically increased since the advent of…
The Gaussian theory of errors has been generalized to situations, where the Gaussian distribution and, hence, the Gaussian rules of error propagation are inadequate. The generalizations are based on Bayes' theorem and a suitable measure.…
Diffusion models for continuous state spaces based on Gaussian noising processes are now relatively well understood from both practical and theoretical perspectives. In contrast, results for diffusion models on discrete state spaces remain…
Spatially referenced data often have autocovariance functions with elliptical isolevel contours, a property known as geometric anisotropy. The anisotropy parameters include the tilt of the ellipse (orientation angle) with respect to a…
The m-out-of-n bootstrap, originally proposed by Bickel, Gotze, and Zwet (1992), approximates the distribution of a statistic by repeatedly drawing m subsamples (with m much smaller than n) without replacement from an original sample of…
Expectation Propagation is a very popular algorithm for variational inference, but comes with few theoretical guarantees. In this article, we prove that the approximation errors made by EP can be bounded. Our bounds have an asymptotic…
We prove the large-dimensional Gaussian approximation of a sum of $n$ independent random vectors in $\mathbb{R}^d$ together with fourth-moment error bounds on convex sets and Euclidean balls. We show that compared with classical…
Stochastic approximation is a powerful class of algorithms with celebrated success. However, a large body of previous analysis focuses on stochastic approximations driven by contractive operators, which is not applicable in some important…