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The autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is a classical, and arguably one of the most studied approaches to model time series data. It has compelling theoretical properties and is widely used among practitioners. More recent deep…
The renewable energies prediction and particularly global radiation forecasting is a challenge studied by a growing number of research teams. This paper proposes an original technique to model the insolation time series based on combining…
In this paper, we use convolutional neural networks to address the problem of model identification for autoregressive moving average time series models. We compare the performance of several neural network architectures, trained on…
Autoregressive (AR) models remain widely used in time series analysis due to their interpretability, but convencional parameter estimation methods can be computationally expensive and prone to convergence issues. This paper proposes a…
A time series is a sequence of observations taken sequentially in time. The autoregressive integrated moving average is a class of the model more used for times series data. However, this class of model has two critical limitations. It fits…
In this work, we consider the class of multi-state autoregressive processes that can be used to model non-stationary time-series of interest. In order to capture different autoregressive (AR) states underlying an observed time series, it is…
Using a proper model to characterize a time series is crucial in making accurate predictions. In this work we use time-varying autoregressive process (TVAR) to describe non-stationary time series and model it as a mixture of multiple stable…
The modeling of time-varying graph signals as stationary time-vertex stochastic processes permits the inference of missing signal values by efficiently employing the correlation patterns of the process across different graph nodes and time…
Celestial objects exhibit a wide range of variability in brightness at different wavebands. Surprisingly, the most common methods for characterizing time series in statistics -- parametric autoregressive modeling -- is rarely used to…
This paper proposes an autoregressive (AR) model for sequences of graphs, which generalises traditional AR models. A first novelty consists in formalising the AR model for a very general family of graphs, characterised by a variable…
We address the problem of defining early warning indicators of critical transition. To this purpose, we fit the relevant time series through a class of linear models, known as Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA(p,q)) models. We define two…
Fitting autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series models requires model identification before parameter estimation. Model identification involves determining the order of the autoregressive and moving average components which is…
We describe a simple and succinct methodology to develop hourly auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models to forecast power output from a photovoltaic solar generator. We illustrate how to build an ARMA model, to use statistical tests to…
We propose a multiscale approach to time series autoregression, in which linear regressors for the process in question include features of its own path that live on multiple timescales. We take these multiscale features to be the recent…
Considering the grid manager's point of view, needs in terms of prediction of intermittent energy like the photovoltaic resource can be distinguished according to the considered horizon: following days (d+1, d+2 and d+3), next day by hourly…
The integration of renewable resources has increased in power generation as a means to reduce the fossil fuel usage and mitigate its adverse effects on the environment. However, renewables like solar energy are stochastic in nature due to…
Current time-series forecasting models are primarily based on transformer-style neural networks. These models achieve long-term forecasting mainly by scaling up the model size rather than through genuinely autoregressive (AR) rollout. From…
This paper considers nonparametric estimation and inference in first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models with deterministically time-varying parameters. A key feature of the proposed approach is to allow for time-varying stationarity in…
In this article, we first propose the modified Hannan-Rissanen Method for estimating the parameters of the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) process with symmetric stable noise and symmetric stable generalized autoregressive conditional…
In this paper, five different deep learning models are being compared for predicting travel time. These models are autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, recurrent neural network (RNN) model, autoregressive (AR) model,…