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We consider a financial market in discrete time and study pricing and hedging conditional on the information available up to an arbitrary point in time. In this conditional framework, we determine the structure of arbitrage-free prices.…
There is vast empirical evidence that given a set of assumptions on the real-world dynamics of an asset, the European options on this asset are not efficiently priced in options markets, giving rise to arbitrage opportunities. We study…
In this paper, the survival function of waiting times between orders and the corresponding trades in a double-auction market is studied both by means of experiments and of empirical data. It turns out that, already at the level of order…
We consider a stochastic game between a slow institutional investor and a high-frequency trader who are trading a risky asset and their aggregated order-flow impacts the asset price. We model this system by means of two coupled stochastic…
We investigate the links between various no-arbitrage conditions and the existence of pricing functionals in general markets, and prove the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing therein. No-arbitrage conditions, either in this abstract…
We consider the superhedging price of an exotic option under nondominated model uncertainty in discrete time in which the option buyer chooses some action from an (uncountable) action space at each time step. By introducing an enlarged…
Reduced installation and operating costs give energy storage systems an opportunity to participate actively and profitably in electricity markets. In addition to providing ancillary services, energy storage systems can also arbitrage…
Market efficiency at least requires the absence of weak arbitrage opportunities, but this is not sufficient to establish a situation where the market is sensitive, i.e., where it "fully reflects" or "rapidly adjusts to" some information…
This paper presents a stochastic model for discrete-time trading in financial markets where trading costs are given by convex cost functions and portfolios are constrained by convex sets. The model does not assume the existence of a cash…
The cross-correlations between the exchange rate fluctuations of 74 currencies over the period 1995-2012 are analyzed in this paper. The eigenvalue distribution of the cross-correlation matrix exhibits a bulk which approximately matches the…
We derive the arbitrage gains or, equivalently, Loss Versus Rebalancing (LVR) for arbitrage between \textit{two imperfectly liquid} markets, extending prior work that assumes the existence of an infinitely liquid reference market. Our…
The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is widely accepted to hold true under certain assumptions. One of its implications is that the prediction of stock prices at least in the short run cannot outperform the random walk model. Yet, recently…
Using a model of wealth distribution where traders are characterized by quenched random saving propensities and trade among themselves by bipartite transactions, we mimic the enhanced rates of trading of the rich by introducing the…
We investigate the relative market efficiency in financial market data, using the approximate entropy(ApEn) method for a quantification of randomness in time series. We used the global foreign exchange market indices for 17 countries during…
In speculative markets, risk-free profit opportunities are eliminated by traders exploiting them. Markets are therefore often described as "informationally efficient", rapidly removing predictable price changes, and leaving only residual…
We investigate a number of Artificial Neural Network architectures (well-known and more ``exotic'') in application to the long-term financial time-series forecasts of indexes on different global markets. The particular area of interest of…
The realm of High-Frequency Trading (HFT) is characterized by rapid decision-making processes that capitalize on fleeting market inefficiencies. As the financial markets become increasingly competitive, there is a pressing need for…
We study a generic model for self-referential behaviour in financial markets, where agents attempt to use some (possibly fictitious) causal correlations between a certain quantitative information and the price itself. This correlation is…
In this paper we develop a statistical arbitrage trading strategy with two key elements in hi-frequency trading: stop-loss and leverage. We consider, as in Bertram (2009), a mean-reverting process for the security price with proportional…
We use formal methods to specify, design, and monitor continuous double auctions, which are widely used to match buyers and sellers at exchanges of foreign currencies, stocks, and commodities. We identify three natural properties of such…