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The estimation of the covariance structure from a discretely observed multivariate Gaussian process under asynchronicity and noise is analysed under high-frequency asymptotics. Asymptotic lower and upper bounds are established for a general…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-04-21 Sebastian Holtz

Two canonical problems in geostatistics are estimating the parameters in a specified family of stochastic process models and predicting the process at new locations. A number of asymptotic results addressing these problems over a fixed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-10-11 Cari Kaufman , Benjamin Shaby

An approach is proposed to determine structural shift in time-series assuming non-linear dependence of lagged values of dependent variable. Copulas are used to model non-linear dependence of time series components.

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-09-19 Henry Penikas

Given two random variables $X$ and $Y$, stochastic monotonicity describes a monotone influence of $X$ on $Y$. We prove two different characterizations of stochastically monotone $2$-copulas using the isomorphism between $2$-copulas and…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-14 Karl Friedrich Siburg , Christopher Strothmann

We propose a new framework for imposing monotonicity constraints in a Bayesian nonparametric setting based on numerical solutions of stochastic differential equations. We derive a nonparametric model of monotonic functions that allows for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-26 Ivan Ustyuzhaninov , Ieva Kazlauskaite , Carl Henrik Ek , Neill D. F. Campbell

We propose a model selection approach for covariance estimation of a multi-dimensional stochastic process. Under very general assumptions, observing i.i.d replications of the process at fixed observation points, we construct an estimator of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Jérémie Bigot , Rolando Biscay , Jean-Michel Loubes , Lilian Muniz Alvarez

Copula models have become one of the most widely used tools in the applied modelling of multivariate data. Similarly, Bayesian methods are increasingly used to obtain efficient likelihood-based inference. However, to date, there has been…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-10-13 Michael Stanley Smith

Stochastic spectral methods have achieved great success in the uncertainty quantification of many engineering problems, including electronic and photonic integrated circuits influenced by fabrication process variations. Existing techniques…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-12-06 Chunfeng Cui , Zheng Zhang

We study estimation and prediction of Gaussian processes with covariance model belonging to the generalized Cauchy (GC) family, under fixed domain asymptotics. Gaussian processes with this kind of covariance function provide separate…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-23 Moreno Bevilacqua , Tarik Faouzi

Research on Poisson regression analysis for dependent data has been developed rapidly in the last decade. One of difficult problems in a multivariate case is how to construct a cross-correlation structure and at the meantime make sure that…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-05 A'yunin Sofro , Jian Qing Shi , Chunzheng Cao

We tackle the problem of multi-task learning with copula process. Multivariable prediction in spatial and spatial-temporal processes such as natural resource estimation and pollution monitoring have been typically addressed using techniques…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-06-03 Markus Schneider , Fabio Ramos

We consider a measurable stationary Gaussian stochastic process. A criterion for testing hypotheses about the covariance function of such a process using estimates for its norm in the space $L_p(\mathbb {T}),\,p\geq1$, is constructed.

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-19 Yuriy Kozachenko , Viktor Troshki

This paper presents a new variable selection approach integrated with Gaussian process (GP) regression. We consider a sparse projection of input variables and a general stationary covariance model that depends on the Euclidean distance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-26 Chiwoo Park , David J. Borth , Nicholas S. Wilson , Chad N. Hunter

Order-preserving couplings are elegant tools for obtaining robust estimates of the time-dependent and stationary distributions of Markov processes that are too complex to be analyzed exactly. The starting point of this paper is to study…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-06-02 Lasse Leskelä

To estimate cosmological parameters from a given dataset, we need to construct a likelihood function, which sometimes has a complicated functional form. We introduce the copula, a mathematical tool to construct an arbitrary multivariate…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2011-02-25 Masanori Sato , Kiyotomo Ichiki , Tsutomu T. Takeuchi

Hydroclimatic processes are characterized by heterogeneous spatiotemporal correlation structures and marginal distributions that can be continuous, mixed-type, discrete or even binary. Simulating exactly such processes can greatly improve…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-24 Simon Michael Papalexiou

New copulas, based on perturbation theory, are introduced to clarify a \emph{symmetrization} procedure for asymmetric copulas. We give also some properties of the \emph{symmetrized} copula. Finally, we examine families of copulas with a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-29 Mohamed El Maazouz , Ahmed Sani

Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a powerful non-parametric framework for reasoning over functions. Despite appealing theory, its superlinear computational and memory complexities have presented a long-standing challenge. State-of-the-art…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-16 Hugh Salimbeni , Ching-An Cheng , Byron Boots , Marc Deisenroth

The growing field of large-scale time domain astronomy requires methods for probabilistic data analysis that are computationally tractable, even with large datasets. Gaussian Processes are a popular class of models used for this purpose…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2017-11-15 Daniel Foreman-Mackey , Eric Agol , Sivaram Ambikasaran , Ruth Angus

We develop a family of reformulations of an arbitrary consistent linear system into a stochastic problem. The reformulations are governed by two user-defined parameters: a positive definite matrix defining a norm, and an arbitrary discrete…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-01-27 Peter Richtárik , Martin Takáč