Related papers: Identifying financial crises in real time
A thermodynamic approach to the description of economic systems and processes is developed. It is shown that there is a deep analogy between the parameters of thermodynamic and economic systems (markets); so each thermodynamic parameter can…
Temporal data distribution shift is prevalent in the financial text. How can a financial sentiment analysis system be trained in a volatile market environment that can accurately infer sentiment and be robust to temporal data distribution…
The aim of this study is to investigate quantitatively whether share prices deviated from company fundamentals in the stock market crash of 2008. For this purpose, we use a large database containing the balance sheets and share prices of…
Summarized by the efficient market hypothesis, the idea that stock prices fully reflect all available information is always confronted with the behavior of real-world markets. While there is plenty of evidence indicating and quantifying the…
Evidence is offered for log-periodic (in time) fluctuations in the S&P 500 stock index during the three years prior to the October 27, 1997 "correction". These fluctuations were expected on the basis of a discretely scale invariant rupture…
The occurrence of aftershocks following a major financial crash manifests the critical dynamical response of financial markets. Aftershocks put additional stress on markets, with conceivable dramatic consequences. Such a phenomenon has been…
We consider a quantum system with $N$ degrees of freedom which is classically chaotic. When $N$ is large, and both $\hbar$ and the quantum energy uncertainty $\Delta E$ are small, quantum chaos theory can be used to demonstrate the…
Self-organized criticality has been claimed to play an important role in many natural and social systems. In the present work we empirically investigate the relevance of this theory to stock-market dynamics. Avalanches in stock-market…
We measure the influence of different time-scales on the dynamics of financial market data. This is obtained by decomposing financial time series into simple oscillations associated with distinct time-scales. We propose two new time-varying…
Multifractal analysis is a forecasting technique used to study the scaling regularity properties of financial returns, to analyze the long-term memory and predictability of financial markets. In this paper, we propose a novel structural…
By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii) behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii) the mathematical and statistical physics of bifurcations and phase transitions, the…
The principal aim of this work is the evidence on empirical way that catastrophic bifurcation breakdowns or transitions, proceeded by flickering phenomenon, are present on notoriously significant and unpredictable financial markets.…
Various works have already showed that common shocks and cross-country financial linkages caused the banking systems of several countries to be highly interconnected with the result that during bad times, banking crises may arise…
Oil price data have a complicated multi-scale structure that may vary with time. We use time-frequency analysis to identify the main features of these variations and, in particular, the regime shifts. The analysis is based on a…
We here present the complete analysis of experiments on driven Brownian motion and electric noise in a $RC$ circuit, showing that thermodynamic entropy production can be related to the breaking of time-reversal symmetry in the statistical…
We investigate Ising model description of dynamics of stock price. The model is defined in near 2 dimensions, one dimension is time and another represents ensemble of stocks, and strength of response of investors to price change corresponds…
Establishing unambiguously the existence of speculative bubbles is an on-going controversy complicated by the need of defining a model of fundamental prices. Here, we present a novel empirical method which bypasses all the difficulties of…
A brief historical perspective is first given concerning financial crashes, - from the 17th till the 20th century. In modern times, it seems that log periodic oscillations are found before crashes in several financial indices. The same is…
We study how to assess the potential benefit of diversifying an equity portfolio by investing within and across equity sectors. We analyse 20 years of US stock price data, which includes the global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19…
Fractional Brownian motion has become a standard tool to address long-range dependence in financial time series. However, a constant memory parameter is too restrictive to address different market conditions. Here we model the price…