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Causal discovery methods can identify valid adjustment sets for causal effect estimation for a pair of target variables, even when the underlying causal graph is unknown. Global causal discovery methods focus on learning the whole causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-01 Mátyás Schubert , Tom Claassen , Sara Magliacane

Often the goal of model selection is to choose a model for future prediction, and it is natural to measure the accuracy of a future prediction by squared error loss. Under the Bayesian approach, it is commonly perceived that the optimal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Maria Maddalena Barbieri , James O. Berger

To find New Physics or to refine our knowledge of the Standard Model at the LHC is an enterprise that involves many factors. We focus on taking advantage of available information and pour our effort in re-thinking the usual data-driven ABCD…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2024-09-26 Ezequiel Alvarez , Leandro Da Rold , Manuel Szewc , Alejandro Szynkman , Santiago A. Tanco , Tatiana Tarutina

Animals flexibly recombine a finite set of core motor motifs to meet diverse task demands, but existing behavior segmentation methods oversimplify this process by imposing discrete syllables under restrictive generative assumptions. To…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Jiyi Wang , Jingyang Ke , Bo Dai , Anqi Wu

Revealing the functional sites of biological sequences, such as evolutionary conserved, structurally interacting or co-evolving protein sites, is a fundamental, and yet challenging task. Different frameworks and models were developed to…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2019-06-07 Justas Dauparas , Haobo Wang , Avi Swartz , Peter Koo , Mor Nitzan , Sergey Ovchinnikov

We investigate properties of node centrality in random growing tree models. We focus on a measure of centrality that computes the maximum subtree size of the tree rooted at each node, with the most central node being the tree centroid. For…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-11-09 Varun Jog , Po-Ling Loh

Reconstructing transmission networks is essential for identifying key factors like superspreaders and high-risk locations, which are critical for developing effective pandemic prevention strategies. In this study, we developed a Bayesian…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2024-09-10 Jianing Xu , Huimin Hu , Gregory Ellison , Lili Yu , Christopher Whalen , Liang Liu

Motivated by molecular biology, there has been an upsurge of research activities in directional statistics in general and its Bayesian aspect in particular. The central distribution for the circular case is von Mises distribution which has…

Computation · Statistics 2014-06-24 Peter G. M. Forbes , Kanti V. Mardia

The study of transcription remains one of the centerpieces of modern biology with implications in settings from development to metabolism to evolution to disease. Precision measurements using a host of different techniques including…

Subcellular Processes · Quantitative Biology 2021-06-09 Muir J. Morrison , Manuel Razo-Mejia , Rob Phillips

On time-series data, most causal discovery methods fit a new model whenever they encounter samples from a new underlying causal graph. However, these samples often share relevant information which is lost when following this approach.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-24 Sindy Löwe , David Madras , Richard Zemel , Max Welling

Clustering is widely studied in statistics and machine learning, with applications in a variety of fields. As opposed to classical algorithms which return a single clustering solution, Bayesian nonparametric models provide a posterior over…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-11 Sara Wade , Zoubin Ghahramani

A Bayesian network is a widely used probabilistic graphical model with applications in knowledge discovery and prediction. Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be cast as an optimization problem using the well-known…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-09-01 Zhenyu A. Liao , Charupriya Sharma , James Cussens , Peter van Beek

We address the problem of parameter estimation in models of systems biology from noisy observations. The models we consider are characterized by simultaneous deterministic nonlinear differential equations whose parameters are either taken…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-05-01 Xin Liu , Mahesan Niranjan

This paper is concerned with the numerical solution of model-based, Bayesian inverse problems. We are particularly interested in cases where the cost of each likelihood evaluation (forward-model call) is expensive and the number of un-…

Computation · Statistics 2016-07-25 Isabell M. Franck , P. S. Koutsourelakis

Background: In addition to known protein-coding genes, large amount of apparently non-coding sequence are conserved between the human and mouse genomes. It seems reasonable to assume that these conserved regions are more likely to contain…

Genomics · Quantitative Biology 2007-05-23 Thomas A. Down , Tim J. P. Hubbard

The reliability assessment of a machine learning model's prediction is an important quantity for the deployment in safety critical applications. Not only can it be used to detect novel sceneries, either as out-of-distribution or anomaly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-12 Steve Dias Da Cruz , Bertram Taetz , Thomas Stifter , Didier Stricker

We develop Bayesian predictive stacking for geostatistical models, where the primary inferential objective is to provide inference on the latent spatial random field and conduct spatial predictions at arbitrary locations. We exploit…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-25 Lu Zhang , Wenpin Tang , Sudipto Banerjee

Model explanation techniques play a critical role in understanding the source of a model's performance and making its decisions transparent. Here we investigate if explanation techniques can also be used as a mechanism for scientific…

In segmentation problems, inference on change-point position and model selection are two difficult issues due to the discrete nature of change-points. In a Bayesian context, we derive exact, non-asymptotic, explicit and tractable formulae…

Computation · Statistics 2015-12-31 Guillem Rigaill , Emilie Lebarbier , Stéphane Robin

Objective: Modelling the associations from high-throughput experimental molecular data has provided unprecedented insights into biological pathways and signalling mechanisms. Graphical models and networks have especially proven to be useful…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-04-24 Marco Scutari , Radhakrishnan Nagarajan
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