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We prove a central limit type theorem for critical marked Hawkes processes. We study the case where the marks are i.i.d. with nonnegative values and their common distribution is either heavy tailed or has finite variance. The kernel…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-05 Anna Talarczyk

Traditionally, Hawkes processes are used to model time--continuous point processes with history dependence. Here we propose an extended model where the self--effects are of both excitatory and inhibitory type and follow a Gaussian Process.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-05-21 Noa Malem-Shinitski , Cesar Ojeda , Manfred Opper

A uniform law of large numbers and a central limit theorem are established via a martingale approach for a univariate Hawkes process with immigration given by a renewal process. The results are obtained for renewal processes with absolutely…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-01 Luis Iván Hernández Ruíz

Multivariate Hawkes processes are past-dependant point processes originally introduced to model excitation effects, later extended to a nonlinear framework to account for the opposite effect, known as inhibition. Motivated by applications…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Sacha Quayle , Anna Bonnet , Maxime Sangnier

We study the asymptotic properties of the solutions of a nonlinear renewal equation. The main contribution of the present article is to provide stability and convergence results around equilibrium solutions, under some local subcritical…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-12-17 Céline Duval , Eric Luçon

This paper investigates Hawkes processes on the positive real line exhibiting both self-excitation and inhibition. Each point of this point process impacts its future intensity by the addition of a signed reproduction function. The case of…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Manon Costa , Carl Graham , Laurence Marsalle , Viet Chi Tran

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties. Hawkes process has been widely applied in finance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-23 Fuqing Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

Fueled in part by recent applications in neuroscience, the multivariate Hawkes process has become a popular tool for modeling the network of interactions among high-dimensional point process data. While evaluating the uncertainty of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-16 Xu Wang , Mladen Kolar , Ali Shojaie

The propagation of chaos and associated law of large numbers for mean-field interacting age-dependent Hawkes processes (when the number of processes n goes to +$\infty$) being granted by the study performed in (Chevallier, 2015), the aim of…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-08 Julien Chevallier

In this paper, we propose a stochastic process, which is a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process with Hawkes jumps. It can be seen as a generalization of the classical Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process and the classical Hawkes process with exponential…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-16 Lingjiong Zhu

The Hawkes process is a counting process that has self- and mutually-exciting features with many applications in various fields. In recent years, there have been many interests in the mean-field results of the Hawkes process and its…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-01 Fuqing Gao , Yunshi Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

Hawkes Processes are a type of point process which models self-excitement among time events. It has been used in a myriad of applications, ranging from finance and earthquakes to crime rates and social network activity analysis.Recently, a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-05 Rafael Lima

The Hawkes self-excited point process provides an efficient representation of the bursty intermittent dynamics of many physical, biological, geological and economic systems. By expressing the probability for the next event per unit time…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-09-23 Kiyoshi Kanazawa , Didier Sornette

We generalise the construction of multivariate Hawkes processes to a possibly infinite network of counting processes on a directed graph $\mathbb G$. The process is constructed as the solution to a system of Poisson driven stochastic…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-25 Sylvain Delattre , Nicolas Fournier , Marc Hoffmann

The Hawkes process is a popular point process model for event sequences that exhibit temporal clustering. The intensity process of a Hawkes process consists of two components, the baseline intensity and the accumulated excitation effect due…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-20 Tsz-Kit Jeffrey Kwan , Feng Chen , William Dunsmuir

Multivariate point processes are widely applied to model event-type data such as natural disasters, online message exchanges, financial transactions or neuronal spike trains. One very popular point process model in which the probability of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-27 Deborah Sulem , Vincent Rivoirard , Judith Rousseau

In the last decade Hawkes processes have received much attention as models for functional connectivity in neural spiking networks and other dynamical systems with a cascade behavior. In this paper we establish a renewal approach for…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-11 Mads Bonde Raad

We consider a system of $N$ Hawkes processes and observe the actions of a subpopulation of size $K \le N$ up to time $t$, where $K$ is large. The influence relationships between each pair of individuals are modeled by i.i.d.Bernoulli($p$)…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-06 Chenguang Liu , Liping Xu , An Zhang

We investigate the asymptotic behaviour of networks of interacting non-linear Hawkes processes modeling a homogeneous population of neurons in the large population limit. In particular, we prove a functional central limit theorem for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-07-06 Sophie Heesen , Wilhelm Stannat

We consider multi-class systems of interacting nonlinear Hawkes processes modeling several large families of neurons and study their mean field limits. As the total number of neurons goes to infinity we prove that the evolution within each…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-10-04 Susanne Ditlevsen , Eva Löcherbach