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I propose a nonparametric iid bootstrap procedure for the empirical likelihood, the exponential tilting, and the exponentially tilted empirical likelihood estimators that achieves asymptotic refinements for t tests and confidence intervals,…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-03 Seojeong Lee

This article proposes an online bootstrap scheme for nonparametric level estimation in nonstationary time series. Our approach applies to a broad class of level estimators expressible as weighted sample averages over time windows, including…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-02 Thomas Nagler , Tobias Brock , Nicolai Palm

I propose a nonparametric iid bootstrap that achieves asymptotic refinements for t tests and confidence intervals based on GMM estimators even when the model is misspecified. In addition, my bootstrap does not require recentering the moment…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-03 Seojeong Lee

Fault detection is crucial for ensuring the safety and reliability of modern industrial systems. However, a significant scientific challenge is the lack of rigorous risk control and reliable uncertainty quantification in existing diagnostic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-05 Mingchen Mei , Yi Li , YiYao Qian , Zijun Jia

We study the coverage properties of full conformal regression in the proportional asymptotic regime where the ratio of the dimension and the sample size converges to a constant. In this setting, existing theory tells us only that full…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-03 Isaac Gibbs , Emmanuel J. Candès

This paper develops a method to construct uniform confidence bands for a nonparametric regression function where a predictor variable is subject to a measurement error. We allow for the distribution of the measurement error to be unknown,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-17 Kengo Kato , Yuya Sasaki

In a split conformal framework with $K$ classes, a calibration sample of $n$ labeled examples is observed for inference on the label of a new unlabeled example. We explore the setting where a `batch' of $m$ independent such unlabeled…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-19 Ulysse Gazin , Ruth Heller , Etienne Roquain , Aldo Solari

A new computation method of frequentist $p$-values and Bayesian posterior probabilities based on the bootstrap probability is discussed for the multivariate normal model with unknown expectation parameter vector. The null hypothesis is…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-12-24 Hidetoshi Shimodaira

The problem of constructing a simultaneous confidence surface for the 2-dimensional mean function of a non-stationary functional time series is challenging as these bands can not be built on classical limit theory for the maximum absolute…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-27 Holger Dette , Weichi Wu

Estimating nonlinear functionals of probability distributions from samples is a fundamental statistical problem. The "plug-in" estimator obtained by applying the target functional to the empirical distribution of samples is biased.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-20 Florian Schäfer

When randomized ensemble methods such as bagging and random forests are implemented, a basic question arises: Is the ensemble large enough? In particular, the practitioner desires a rigorous guarantee that a given ensemble will perform…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-08-06 Miles E. Lopes , Suofei Wu , Thomas C. M. Lee

It is common to show the confidence intervals or $p$-values of selected features, or predictor variables in regression, but they often involve selection bias. The selective inference approach solves this bias by conditioning on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-02 Yoshikazu Terada , Hidetoshi Shimodaira

Asymptotic bootstrap validity is usually understood as consistency of the distribution of a bootstrap statistic, conditional on the data, for the unconditional limit distribution of a statistic of interest. From this perspective, randomness…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-09 Giuseppe Cavaliere , Iliyan Georgiev

This paper investigates the accuracy of bootstrap-based inference in the case of long memory fractionally integrated processes. The re-sampling method is based on the semi-parametric sieve approach, whereby the dynamics in the process used…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-03-08 D. S. Poskitt , Simone D. Grose , Gael M. Martin

We study statistical inference and distributionally robust solution methods for stochastic optimization problems, focusing on confidence intervals for optimal values and solutions that achieve exact coverage asymptotically. We develop a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-03 John Duchi , Peter Glynn , Hongseok Namkoong

We derive inferential procedures for large sample sizes that remain valid under data-dependent significance levels (so-called "post-hoc valid inference"). Classical statistical tools require that the significance level -- the "type-I error"…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Ben Chugg , Etienne Gauthier , Michael I. Jordan , Aaditya Ramdas , Ian Waudby-Smith

The bootstrap is a popular and convenient method for quantifying the authority of an empirical ordering of attributes, for example of a ranking of the performance of institutions or of the influence of genes on a response variable. In the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-11-20 Peter Hall , Hugh Miller

Despite extensive research on neural network calibration, existing methods typically apply global transformations that treat all predictions uniformly, overlooking the heterogeneous reliability of individual predictions. Furthermore, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-22 Hassan Gharoun , Mohammad Sadegh Khorshidi , Kasra Ranjbarigderi , Fang Chen , Amir H. Gandomi

Standard Bayesian inference is known to be sensitive to model misspecification, leading to unreliable uncertainty quantification and poor predictive performance. However, finding generally applicable and computationally feasible methods for…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-31 Jonathan H. Huggins , Jeffrey W. Miller

Band-limited functions are fundamental objects that are widely used in systems theory and signal processing. In this paper we refine a recent nonparametric, nonasymptotic method for constructing simultaneous confidence regions for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-27 Balázs Csanád Csáji , Bálint Horváth