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For statistical inference of means of stationary processes, one needs to estimate their time-average variance constants (TAVC) or long-run variances. For a stationary process, its TAVC is the sum of all its covariances and it is a multiple…

Estimating hidden processes from non-linear noisy observations is particularly difficult when the parameters of these processes are not known. This paper adopts a machine learning approach to devise variational Bayesian inference for such…

In this paper, we consider a model called CHARME (Conditional Heteroscedastic Autoregressive Mixture of Experts), a class of generalized mixture of nonlinear nonparametric AR-ARCH time series. Under certain Lipschitz-type conditions on the…

This paper studies the model selection problem in a large class of causal time series models, which includes both the ARMA or AR($\infty$) processes, as well as the GARCH or ARCH($\infty$), APARCH, ARMA-GARCH and many others processes. We…

Emerging AI systems in behavioral health and psychiatry use multi-step or multi-agent LLM pipelines for tasks like assessing self-harm risk and screening for depression. However, common evaluation approaches, like LLM-as-a-judge, do not…

Automated vehicle technologies offer a promising avenue for enhancing traffic efficiency, safety, and energy consumption. Among these, Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) systems stand out as a prevalent form of automation on today's roads, with…

This paper investigates a partially linear spatial autoregressive panel data model that incorporates fixed effects, constant and time-varying regression coefficients, and a time-varying spatial lag coefficient. A two-stage least squares…

Methods for combining predictions from different models in a supervised learning setting must somehow estimate/predict the quality of a model's predictions at unknown future inputs. Many of these methods (often implicitly) make the…

We present Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR), a new generation paradigm that redefines the autoregressive learning on images as coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" or "next-resolution prediction", diverging from the standard…

In this paper, we improve the PAC-Bayesian error bound for linear regression derived in Germain et al. [10]. The improvements are twofold. First, the proposed error bound is tighter, and converges to the generalization loss with a…

We propose a sparse coefficient estimation and automated model selection procedure for autoregressive (AR) processes with heavy-tailed innovations based on penalized conditional maximum likelihood. Under mild moment conditions on the…

Numerous approaches have been proposed to discover causal dependencies in machine learning and data mining; among them, the state-of-the-art VAR-LiNGAM (short for Vector Auto-Regressive Linear Non-Gaussian Acyclic Model) is a desirable…

Previous comparisons of ordinary least squares with Newey-West standard errors (OLS-NW) and Prais-Winsten (PW) regression in multiple-group interrupted time series analysis have been limited to first-order autoregressive (AR[1]) errors…

The autoregressive process of order $p$ (AR($p$)) is a central model in time series analysis. A Bayesian approach requires the user to define a prior distribution for the coefficients of the AR($p$) model. Although it is easy to write down…

Lasso-type estimators are routinely used to estimate high-dimensional time series models. The theoretical guarantees established for these estimators typically require the penalty level to be chosen in a suitable fashion often depending on…

Most forecasting methods use recent past observations (lags) to model the future values of univariate time series. Selecting an adequate number of lags is important for training accurate forecasting models. Several approaches and heuristics…

Time series prediction has been a long-standing research topic and an essential application in many domains. Modern time series collected from sensor networks (e.g., energy consumption and traffic flow) are often large-scale and incomplete…

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are widely used for causal discovery and forecasting in multivariate time series analysis. In the high-dimensional setting, which is increasingly common in fields such as neuroscience and econometrics,…

Adaptive gradient methods (AGMs) have become popular in optimizing the nonconvex problems in deep learning area. We revisit AGMs and identify that the adaptive learning rate (A-LR) used by AGMs varies significantly across the dimensions of…

Recently, the Edge Computing paradigm has gained significant popularity both in industry and academia. Researchers now increasingly target to improve performance and reduce energy consumption of such devices. Some recent efforts focus on…