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We define a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) in which each hidden state has time-dependent $\textit{activity levels}$ that drive transitions and emissions, and show how to estimate its parameters. Our construction is motivated by the problem of…
In February 2018, the VIX index has seen its largest ever increase and has lead to significant losses for some major volatility related products. Despite many efforts, the precise underlying reasons are yet to be discovered. We study the…
The hidden-variables premise is shown to be equivalent to the existence of generic filters for algebras of commuting propositions and for certain more general propositional systems. The significance of this equivalence is interpreted in…
Psychological change processes, such as university student dropout in math, often exhibit discrete latent state transitions and can be studied using regime-switching models with intensive longitudinal data (ILD). Recently, regime-switching…
In recent years, there has been a substantive interest in rough volatility models. In this class of models, the local behavior of stochastic volatility is much more irregular than semimartingales and resembles that of a fractional Brownian…
Many natural and engineered systems can be modeled as discrete state Markov processes. Often, only a subset of states are directly observable. Inferring the conditional probability that a system occupies a particular hidden state, given the…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) offer a robust and efficient framework for analyzing time series data, modelling both the underlying latent state progression over time and the observation process, conditional on the latent state. However, a…
A common assumption in financial engineering is that the market price for any derivative coincides with an objectively defined risk-neutral price - a plausible assumption only if traders collectively possess objective knowledge about the…
We investigate nonlinear state-space models without a closed-form transition density, and propose reformulating such models over their latent noise variables rather than their latent state variables. In doing so the tractable noise density…
Motivated by wide-ranging applications such as video delivery over networks using Multiple Description Codes, congestion control, and inventory management, we study the state-tracking of a Markovian random process with a known transition…
This paper investigates a financial market where stock returns depend on a hidden Gaussian mean reverting drift process. Information on the drift is obtained from returns and expert opinions in the form of noisy signals about the current…
Volatility, as a primary indicator of financial risk, forms the foundation of classical frameworks such as Markowitz's Portfolio Theory and the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). However, its conventional use rests on assumptions-most…
This paper is concerned with a characterization of the observability for a continuous-time hidden Markov model where the state evolves as a general continuous-time Markov process and the observation process is modeled as nonlinear function…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) have been extensively used in the univariate and multivariate literature. However, there has been an increased interest in the analysis of matrix-variate data over the recent years. In this manuscript we…
We present a tractable non-independent increment process which provides a high modeling flexibility. The process lies on an extension of the so-called Harris chains to continuous time being stationary and Feller. We exhibit constructions,…
Stochastic volatility models have existed in Option pricing theory ever since the crash of 1987 which violated the Black-Scholes model assumption of constant volatility. Heston model is one such stochastic volatility model that is widely…
We develop a theoretical trading conditioning model subject to price volatility and return information in terms of market psychological behavior, based on analytical transaction volume-price probability wave distributions in which we use…
A Markovian modulation captures the trend in the market and influences the market coefficients accordingly. The different scenarios presented by the market are modeled as the distinct states of a discrete-time Markov chain. In our paper, we…
Variational inference algorithms have proven successful for Bayesian analysis in large data settings, with recent advances using stochastic variational inference (SVI). However, such methods have largely been studied in independent or…
We propose a new financial model, the stochastic volatility model with sticky drawdown and drawup processes (SVSDU model), which enables us to capture the features of winning and losing streaks that are common across financial markets but…