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Stochastic volatility models are the backbone of financial engineering. We study both continuous time diffusions as well as discrete time models. We propose two novel approaches to estimating stochastic volatility diffusions, one using…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-07-30 Eric Ghysels , Jack Morgan , Hamed Mohammadbagherpoor

State space models have long played an important role in signal processing. The Gaussian case can be treated algorithmically using the famous Kalman filter. Similarly since the 1970s there has been extensive application of Hidden Markov…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Peter Bickel , Yaacov Ritov , Tobias Rydén

The formalism of state estimation and hidden Markov models (HMMs) can simplify and clarify the discussion of stochastic thermodynamics in the presence of feedback and measurement errors. After reviewing the basic formalism, we use it to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-11-13 John Bechhoefer

The hidden Markov model (HMM) is a classic modeling tool with a wide swath of applications. Its inception considered observations restricted to a finite alphabet, but it was quickly extended to multivariate continuous distributions. In this…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-30 Adam B Kashlak , Prachi Loliencar , Giseon Heo

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are a ubiquitous tool to model time series data, and have been widely used in two main tasks of Automatic Music Transcription (AMT): note segmentation, i.e. identifying the played notes after a multi-pitch…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-04-13 D. Cazau , G. Nuel

In this paper, we explore the class of the Hidden Semi-Markov Model (HSMM), a flexible extension of the popular Hidden Markov Model (HMM) that allows the underlying stochastic process to be a semi-Markov chain. HSMMs are typically used less…

Applications · Statistics 2023-01-26 Patrick Aschermayr , Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos

We define a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) in which each hidden state has time-dependent $\textit{activity levels}$ that drive transitions and emissions, and show how to estimate its parameters. Our construction is motivated by the problem of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-07-28 David A. Meyer , Asif Shakeel

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are flexible tools for clustering dependent data coming from unknown populations, allowing nonparametric modelling of the population densities. Identifiability fails when the data is in fact independent and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-16 Kweku Abraham , Elisabeth Gassiat , Zacharie Naulet

Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is often regarded as the dynamical model of choice in many fields and applications. It is also at the heart of most state-of-the-art speech recognition systems since the 70's. However, from Gaussian mixture models…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2016-07-04 Sébastien Gagnon , Jean Rouat

We present a lightweight approach to sequence classification using Ensemble Methods for Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). HMMs offer significant advantages in scenarios with imbalanced or smaller datasets due to their simplicity,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-13 Maxime Kawawa-Beaudan , Srijan Sood , Soham Palande , Ganapathy Mani , Tucker Balch , Manuela Veloso

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) have been extensively used in the univariate and multivariate literature. However, there has been an increased interest in the analysis of matrix-variate data over the recent years. In this manuscript we…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-16 Salvatore D. Tomarchio , Antonio Punzo , Antonello Maruotti

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and their extensions have proven to be powerful tools for classification of observations that stem from systems with temporal dependence as they take into account that observations close in time are likely…

Applications · Statistics 2021-11-22 Sofia Ruiz-Suarez , Vianey Leos-Barajas , Juan Manuel Morales

The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is one of the most widely used statistical models for sequential data analysis. One of the key reasons for this versatility is the ability of HMM to deal with missing data. However, standard HMM learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-04 Binyamin Perets , Mark Kozdoba , Shie Mannor

We consider a method for approximate inference in hidden Markov models (HMMs). The method circumvents the need to evaluate conditional densities of observations given the hidden states. It may be considered an instance of Approximate…

Computation · Statistics 2012-06-25 James S. Martin , Ajay Jasra , Sumeetpal S. Singh , Nick Whiteley , Emma McCoy

A hidden Markov model (HMM) solved recursively by the Viterbi algorithm can be configured to search for persistent, quasimonochromatic gravitational radiation from an isolated or accreting neutron star, whose rotational frequency is unknown…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2021-09-01 A. Melatos , P. Clearwater , S. Suvorova , L. Sun , W. Moran , R. J. Evans

We study the frontier between learnable and unlearnable hidden Markov models (HMMs). HMMs are flexible tools for clustering dependent data coming from unknown populations. The model parameters are known to be fully identifiable (up to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-25 Kweku Abraham , Zacharie Naulet , Elisabeth Gassiat

The objective of this article is to study the asymptotic behavior of a new particle filtering approach in the context of hidden Markov models (HMMs). In particular, we develop an algorithm where the latent-state sequence is segmented into…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-09-16 Hock Peng Chan , Chiang Wee Heng , Ajay Jasra

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are flexible time series models in which the distributions of the observations depend on unobserved serially correlated states. The state-dependent distributions in HMMs are usually taken from some class of…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-06-19 Roland Langrock , Thomas Kneib , Alexander Sohn , Stacy DeRuiter

There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the ubiquitous Hidden Markov Model for learning from sequential and time-series data. However, in…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-09-11 Matthew J. Johnson , Alan S. Willsky

Modern scientific studies often require the identification of a subset of relevant explanatory variables, in the attempt to understand an interesting phenomenon. Several statistical methods have been developed to automate this task, but…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-14 Matteo Sesia , Chiara Sabatti , Emmanuel J. Candès