Related papers: Capturing the time-varying drivers of an epidemic …
In Part 1, we introduced a stochastic model of an infectious disease, based on the BDI (birth and death with immigration) process. We showed that random processes defined by this model can capture the essence of the stochastic, often…
Stochasticity and spatial heterogeneity are of great interest recently in studying the spread of an infectious disease. The presented method solves an inverse problem to discover the effectively decisive topology of a heterogeneous network…
We present a Bayesian non-parametric way of inferring stochastic differential equations for both regression tasks and continuous-time dynamical modelling. The work has high emphasis on the stochastic part of the differential equation, also…
The majority of research on epidemics relies on models which are formulated in continuous-time. However, real-world epidemic data is gathered and processed in a digital manner, which is more accurately described by discrete-time epidemic…
Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) provide a natural framework for modelling intrinsic stochasticity inherent in many continuous-time physical processes. When such processes are observed in multiple individuals or experimental units,…
Epidemics are emergent phenomena depending on the epidemiological characteristics of pathogens and the interaction and movement of people. Public transit systems have provided much important information about the movement of people, but…
In the Staged Progression (SP) epidemic models, infected individuals are classified into a suitable number of states. The goal of these models is to describe as closely as possible the effect of differences in infectiousness exhibited by…
The approach of causality based on physical laws and systems is revisited. The issue of "levels", the relevance to epidemiology and the definition of effects are particularly developed. Moreover it is argued that this approach that we call…
In this paper, we examine the long-time dynamics of an epidemic model whose diffusion and reaction terms involve nonlocal effects described by suitable convolution operators.The spreading front of the disease is represented by the free…
Our recent experience with the COVID-19 pandemic amply shows that spatial effects like the mobility of agents and average interpersonal distance, together with the adaptation of agents, are very important in deciding the outcome of epidemic…
In this study, we address three important challenges related to disease transmissions such as the COVID-19 pandemic, namely, (a) providing an early warning to likely exposed individuals, (b) identifying individuals who are asymptomatic, and…
A key problem in modelling the evolution dynamics of infectious diseases is the mathematical representation of the mechanism of transmission of the contagion. Models with a finite number of subpopulations can be described via systems of…
Stochastic processes have found numerous applications in science, as they are broadly used to model a variety of natural phenomena. Due to their intrinsic randomness and uncertainty, they are, however, difficult to characterize. Here, we…
A model describing the dynamics related to the spreading of non-lethal infectious diseases in a fixed-size population is proposed. The model consists of a non-linear delay-differential equation describing the time evolution of the increment…
We present a systematic review of some basic results on the derivation of classical epidemiological models from simple agent-based dynamics. The evolution of large populations is coupled with the dynamics of the contact distribution,…
In this paper we introduce a novel method to conduct inference with models defined through a continuous-time Markov process, and we apply these results to a classical stochastic SIR model as a case study. Using the inverse-size expansion of…
A stochastic epidemic model is defined in which each individual belongs to a household, a secondary grouping (typically school or workplace) and also the community as a whole. Moreover, infectious contacts take place in these three settings…
This work is motivated by an original dataset of reported mumps cases across nine regions of England, and focuses on the modeling of temporal dynamics and time-varying dependency patterns between the observed time series. The goal is to…
We investigate the use of transfer entropy (TE) as a proxy to detect the contact patterns of the population in epidemic processes. We first apply the measure to a classical age-stratified SIR model and observe that the recovered patterns…
Stochasticity is a defining feature of the pairwise forces governing interactions in biological systems-from molecular motors to cell-cell adhesion-yet its consequences on large-scale dynamics remain poorly understood. Here, we show that…