Related papers: Aftershock prediction for high-frequency financial…
Sharp changes in time series representing market dynamics are studied by means of the self--similar analysis suggested earlier by the authors. These sharp changes are market booms and crashes. Such crises phenomena in markets are analogous…
It is useful to consider the earthquakes in terms of catastrophe theory. In the paper, we illustrate this statement by analysis foreshocks preceding the strong earthquakes. We focused on the so-called catastrophe flags, and on the triggers…
Motivated by the hypothesis that financial crashes are macroscopic examples of critical phenomena associated with a discrete scaling symmetry, we reconsider the evidence of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes and test the…
We have analyzed, for the first time, the time cumulant of magnitudes of an aftershock sequence since the mainshock. This comes out to be a remarkable straight line whose slope is characteristic of the fault zone. This will provide an…
The integration and innovation of finance and technology have gradually transformed the financial system into a complex one. Analyses of the causesd of abnormal fluctuations in the financial market to extract early warning indicators…
Many studies assume stock prices follow a random process known as geometric Brownian motion. Although approximately correct, this model fails to explain the frequent occurrence of extreme price movements, such as stock market crashes. Using…
In this paper, we propose a new dynamical model to study the two-stage volatility evolution of stock market index after extreme events, and find that the volatility after extreme events follows a stretched exponential decay in the initial…
The elementary theory of aftershocks, being relatively simple mathematically, belongs to the basics of earthquake physics. The paper briefly outlines the concepts and ideas of the theory, provides equations for the relaxation of the source…
We find the static displacement, stress, strain and the modified Columb failure stress produced in an elastic medium by a finite size rectangular fault after its dislocation with uniform stress drop but a non uniform dislocation on the…
Oft-cited causes of mini-flash crashes include human errors, endogenous feedback loops, the nature of modern liquidity provision, fundamental value shocks, and market fragmentation. We develop a mathematical model which captures aspects of…
The waiting time needed for a stock market index to undergo a given percentage change in its value is found to have an up-down asymmetry, which, surprisingly, is not observed for the individual stocks composing that index. To explain this,…
We propose and study a modified version of the Olami-Feder-Christiensen model of seismicity, that includes a mechanism of structural relaxation. We obtain realistic features of seismicity that are not obtained with the original version,…
We study how a stress perturbation generated by a mainshock affects a population of faults obeying a rate-state friction law. Depending on the model parameters and on the initial state, the fault exhibits aftershocks, slow earthquakes, or…
A part of the seismic time series, in which the Omori law for temporal pattern of aftershocks holds, is refereed to as the Omori regime. Here the properties of correlation between earthquake events both inside and outside of the Omori…
The observation of foreshocks preceding large earthquakes and the suggestion that foreshocks have specific properties that may be used to distinguish them from other earthquakes have raised the hope that large earthquakes may be…
Specialized topics on financial data analysis from a numerical and physical point of view are discussed. They pertain to the analysis of crash prediction in stock market indices and to the persistence or not of coherent and random sequences…
One hundred years ago, Fusakichi Omori died. Our paper is dedicated to his memory. Omori made an outstanding contribution to the physics of earthquakes. In 1894 he formulated the law of aftershock evolution. Omori's Law states that after…
The recently proposed discrete scale invariance and its associated log-periodicity are an elaboration of the concept of scale invariance in which the system is scale invariant only under powers of specific values of the magnification…
This paper analyzes nonlinearities in the international transmission of financial shocks originating in the US. To do so, we develop a flexible nonlinear multi-country model. Our framework is capable of producing asymmetries in the…
We introduce a modification of the OFC earthquake model [Phys. Rev. Lett. 68, 1244 (1992)] in order to improve resemblance with the Burridge and Knopoff mechanical model and with possible laboratory experiments. A constant force continually…