Related papers: Handling Systematic Uncertainties and Combined Sou…
Specialized classifiers, namely those dedicated to a subset of classes, are often adopted in real-world recognition systems. However, integrating such classifiers is nontrivial. Existing methods, e.g. weighted average, usually implicitly…
Telescopes based on the imaging atmospheric Cherenkov technique (IACTs) detect images of the atmospheric showers generated by gamma rays and cosmic rays as they are absorbed by the atmosphere. The much more frequent cosmic-ray events form…
A well-behaved adjoint sensitivity technique for chaotic dynamical systems is presented. The method arises from the specialisation of established variational techniques to the unstable periodic orbits of the system. On such trajectories,…
Global warming leads to the increase in frequency and intensity of climate extremes that cause tremendous loss of lives and property. Accurate long-range climate prediction allows more time for preparation and disaster risk management for…
In this work, we present a new, high performance algorithm for background rejection in imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes. We build on the already popular machine-learning techniques used in gamma-ray astronomy by the application of…
The upcoming Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) project is expected to provide unprecedented sensitivity in the low-energy (<~100 GeV) range for Cherenkov telescopes. Most of the remaining background in this energy range results from…
Ground-based Imaging Cherenkov Telescope Arrays observe the Cherenkov radiation emitted in extended atmospheric showers generated by cosmic gamma rays in the TeV regime. The rate of these events is normally overwhelmed by 2-3 orders of…
Unquantified sources of uncertainty in observational causal analyses can break the integrity of the results. One would never want another analyst to repeat a calculation with the same dataset, using a seemingly identical procedure, only to…
The current precision on the CKM angle $\gamma$ is driven by averages of measurements from multiple final states and multiple experiments. As the next generation of experiments targets a total experimental precision on $\gamma$ less than…
Uncertainty quantification by ensemble learning is explored in terms of an application from computational optical form measurements. The application requires to solve a large-scale, nonlinear inverse problem. Ensemble learning is used to…
A detailed numerical procedure has been developed to simulate the mechanical configurations and optical properties of Imaging Atmospheric Cerenkov Telescope systems. To test these procedures a few existing ACT arrays are simulated. First…
The so called Li&Ma formula is still the most frequently used method for estimating the significance of observations carried out by Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes. In this work a straightforward extension of the method for point…
This paper presents a novel numerical method for the hybrid reliability analysis by using the uncertainty theory. Aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty are considered simultaneously in this method. Epistemic uncertainty is…
A new method for including systematic errors in the regression with Poisson data is reviewed in this contribution, with emphasis on applications to astronomical spectra. The method consists of generalizing the usual Poisson log-likelihood,…
Weighted conformal prediction (WCP) has been commonly used to quantify prediction uncertainty under covariate shift. However, the effectiveness of WCP relies heavily on the degree of overlap between the training and test covariate…
It is often reported in forecast combination literature that a simple average of candidate forecasts is more robust than sophisticated combining methods. This phenomenon is usually referred to as the "forecast combination puzzle". Motivated…
With the internet, a massive amount of information on species abundance can be collected under citizen science programs. However, these data are often difficult to use directly in statistical inference, as their collection is generally…
Imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescope (IACT) arrays record images from air showers initiated by gamma rays entering the atmosphere, allowing astrophysical sources to be observed at very high energies. To maximize IACT sensitivity,…
The incorporation of uncertainties to calculations of signal significance in planned experiments is an actual task. Several approaches to this problem are discussed. We present a procedure for taking into account the systematic uncertainty…
Errors quoted on results are often given in asymmetric form. An account is given of the two ways these can arise in an analysis, and the combination of asymmetric errors is discussed. It is shown that the usual method has no basis and is…