Related papers: Handling Systematic Uncertainties and Combined Sou…
An improved way of taking off-source data for background determination in Cherenkov telescope observations is proposed. Generalizing the traditional concept of taking on-source/off-source observations of equal duration (e.g. 30 minutes ON…
The analysis of ring images produced by muons in an Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescope (IACT) provides a powerful and precise method to calibrate the IACT optical throughput and monitor its optical point-spread function (PSF). First…
The Cherenkov light flashes produced by Extensive Air Showers are very short in time. A high bandwidth and fast digitizing readout, therefore, can minimize the influence of the background from the light of the night sky, and improve the…
Forecast combinations have flourished remarkably in the forecasting community and, in recent years, have become part of the mainstream of forecasting research and activities. Combining multiple forecasts produced from single (target) series…
The Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) will be the next high-energy gamma-ray observatory. Selection of the sites, one in each hemisphere, is not obvious since several factors have to be taken into account. Among them, and probably the most…
We present the results of a preliminary study of a correction method applied to the Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescope images affected by clouds. The studied data are Monte Carlo simulations made with CORSIKA, imitating the very high…
For the proposed Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA), a post-calibration point-source location accuracy of 3 seconds of arc is aimed for under favorable observing conditions and for gamma-ray energies exceeding 100 GeV. In this contribution,…
We have developed a new Bayesian method to correct the flux densities of astronomical sources. The hybrid method combines a simulated likelihood to model survey selection together with an analytic source-count-based prior. The simulated…
One way to incorporate systematic uncertainties into the calculation of confidence intervals is by integrating over probability density functions parametrizing the uncertainties. In this note we present a development of this method which…
Anomaly Detection in multivariate time series is a major problem in many fields. Due to their nature, anomalies sparsely occur in real data, thus making the task of anomaly detection a challenging problem for classification algorithms to…
The Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Technique (IACT) is unusual in astronomy as the atmosphere actually forms an intrinsic part of the detector system, with telescopes indirectly detecting very high energy particles by the generation and…
Ensemble forecasts of weather and climate are subject to systematic biases in the ensemble mean and variance, leading to inaccurate estimates of the forecast mean and variance. To address these biases, ensemble forecasts are post-processed…
A long-held astronomical vision is to realize diffraction-limited optical aperture synthesis over kilometer baselines. This will enable imaging of stellar surfaces and their environments, show their evolution over time, and reveal…
The LSST survey will provide unprecedented statistical power for measurements of dark energy. Consequently, controlling systematic uncertainties is becoming more important than ever. The LSST observing strategy will affect the statistical…
Predictive hydrological uncertainty can be quantified by using ensemble methods. If properly formulated, these methods can offer improved predictive performance by combining multiple predictions. In this work, we use 50-year-long monthly…
This paper considers distribution systems with a high penetration of distributed, renewable generation and addresses the problem of incorporating the associated uncertainty into the optimal operation of these networks. Joint chance…
This paper designs a statistical quantification towards the intermittent power uncertainty in power systems. A negative-exponential forecast uncertainty function is constructed to represent the relationship between the statistics of…
This paper describes the treatment of systematic uncertainties in a Likelihood formalism. RooUnfold, which includes most of the unfolding methods that are commonly used in particle physics, is used to compare a newly implemented method…
The Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) will be the world's first observatory for detecting gamma-rays from astrophysical phenomena and is now in its prototyping phase with construction expected to begin in 2015/16. In this work we present the…
We consider fits to two or more datasets for which results from the sa me experiment share a common systematic uncertainty in addition to their individ ual statistical errors. This is important in extracting the maximum information from a…