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Although living organisms are affected by many interrelated and unidentified variables, this complexity does not automatically impose a fundamental limitation on statistical inference. Nor need one invoke such complexity as an explanation…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-02-06 Drew M. Thomas

There have been numerous publications on the advantages and disadvantages of estimating natural (pure) effects compared to controlled effects. One of the main criticisms of natural effects is that it requires an additional assumption for…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-01 Ian Shrier

We obtain a Stein characterisation of the distribution of the product of two correlated normal random variables with non-zero means, and more generally the distribution of the sum of independent copies of such random variables. Our Stein…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-11 Robert E. Gaunt , Siqi Li , Heather L. Sutcliffe

Unbiased estimators are introduced for averaged Bregman divergences which generalize Stein's Unbiased (Predictive) Risk Estimator, and the minimization of these estimators is proposed as a regularization parameter selection method for…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-11-22 Elias S. Helou , Sandra A. Santos , Lucas E. A. Simões

Reverse causality is a common causal misperception that distorts the evaluation of private actions and public policies. This paper explores the implications of this error when a decision maker acts on it and therefore affects the very…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2021-10-26 Ran Spiegler

Gradient estimation -- approximating the gradient of an expectation with respect to the parameters of a distribution -- is central to the solution of many machine learning problems. However, when the distribution is discrete, most common…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-16 Jiaxin Shi , Yuhao Zhou , Jessica Hwang , Michalis K. Titsias , Lester Mackey

Stein discrepancies have emerged as a powerful statistical tool, being applied to fundamental statistical problems including parameter inference, goodness-of-fit testing, and sampling. The canonical Stein discrepancies require the…

Computation · Statistics 2022-07-20 Matthew A Fisher , Chris. J Oates

When people receive new information, sometimes they revise their beliefs too much, and sometimes too little. In this paper, we show that a key driver of whether people overinfer or underinfer is the strength of the information. Based on a…

General Economics · Economics 2024-07-02 Ned Augenblick , Eben Lazarus , Michael Thaler

Linear model prediction with a large number of potential predictors is both statistically and computationally challenging. The traditional approaches are largely based on shrinkage selection/estimation methods, which are applicable even…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-17 Hanmei Sun , Jiangshan Zhang , Jiming Jiang

The "significance filter" refers to focusing exclusively on statistically significant results. Since frequentist properties such as unbiasedness and coverage are valid only before the data have been observed, there are no guarantees if we…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-22 Erik van Zwet , Eric Cator

A mean function in reproducing kernel Hilbert space, or a kernel mean, is an important part of many applications ranging from kernel principal component analysis to Hilbert-space embedding of distributions. Given finite samples, an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-06-07 Krikamol Muandet , Kenji Fukumizu , Bharath Sriperumbudur , Arthur Gretton , Bernhard Schölkopf

In data-driven inverse optimization an observer aims to learn the preferences of an agent who solves a parametric optimization problem depending on an exogenous signal. Thus, the observer seeks the agent's objective function that best…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-07-25 Peyman Mohajerin Esfahani , Soroosh Shafieezadeh-Abadeh , Grani Adiwena Hanasusanto , Daniel Kuhn

This monograph provides a rigorous overview of theoretical and methodological aspects of probabilistic inference and learning with Stein's method. Recipes are provided for constructing Stein discrepancies from Stein operators and Stein…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-10 Qiang Liu , Lester Mackey , Chris Oates

Causal effects are usually studied in terms of the means of counterfactual distributions, which may be insufficient in many scenarios. Given a class of densities known up to normalizing constants, we propose to model counterfactual…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-20 Diego Martinez-Taboada , Edward H. Kennedy

Stein importance sampling is a widely applicable technique based on kernelized Stein discrepancy, which corrects the output of approximate sampling algorithms by reweighting the empirical distribution of the samples. A general analysis of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-09-14 Liam Hodgkinson , Robert Salomone , Fred Roosta

We consider a decision aggregation problem with two experts who each make a binary recommendation after observing a private signal about an unknown binary world state. An agent, who does not know the joint information structure between…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-11-27 Yuqi Pan , Zhaohua Chen , Yuqing Kong

The primary objective of this paper is to revisit Simpson's paradox using a statistical misspecification perspective. It is argued that the reversal of statistical associations is sometimes spurious, stemming from invalid probabilistic…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-05-16 Aris Spanos

This article discusses estimation of a multivariate normal mean based on heteroscedastic observations. Under heteroscedasticity, estimators shrinking more on the coordinates with larger variances, seem desirable. Although they are not…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-06-23 Yuzo Maruyama , Lawrence D. Brown , Edward I. George

For parameter estimation of continuous and discrete distributions, we propose a generalization of the method of moments (MM), where Stein identities are utilized for improved estimation performance. The construction of these Stein-type…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-25 Simon Nik , Christian H. Weiß

The Hot Stove Effect is a negativity bias resulting from the adaptive character of learning. The mechanism is that learning algorithms that pursue alternatives with positive estimated values, but avoid alternatives with negative estimated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-04 Jerker Denrell