Related papers: The Wishart short rate model
In this paper, we derive the moderate deviation principle for stationary sequences of bounded random variables with values in a Hilbert space. The conditions obtained are expressed in terms of martingale-type conditions. The main tools are…
This paper focuses on modeling the dynamic attributes of a dynamic network with a fixed number of vertices. These attributes are considered as time series which dependency structure is influenced by the underlying network. They are modeled…
We consider the problem of estimating the transition rate matrix of a continuous-time Markov chain from a finite-duration realisation of this process. We approach this problem in an imprecise probabilistic framework, using a set of prior…
We consider the problem of predicting values of a random process or field satisfying a linear model $y(x)=\theta^\top f(x) + \varepsilon(x)$, where errors $\varepsilon(x)$ are correlated. This is a common problem in kriging, where the case…
This paper proposes an improved prediction update for extended target tracking with the random matrix model. A key innovation is to employ a generalised non-central inverse Wishart distribution to model the state transition density of the…
In prediction problems with more predictors than observations, it can sometimes be helpful to use a joint probability model, $\pi(Y,X)$, rather than a purely conditional model, $\pi(Y \mid X)$, where $Y$ is a scalar response variable and…
We introduce a natural definition of Riesz measures and Wishart laws associated to an $\Omega$-positive (virtual) quadratic map, where $\Omega \subset \real^n$ is a regular open convex cone. We give a general formula for moments of the…
We consider an HJM model setting for Markov-chain modulated forward rates. The underlying Markov chain is assumed to induce regime switches on the forward curve dynamics. Our primary focus is on the interest rate and energy futures markets.…
This article shows how to specify and construct a discrete, stochastic, continuous-time model specifically for ecological systems. The model is more broad than typical chemical kinetics models in two ways. First, using time-dependent hazard…
We provide a model to understand how adverse weather conditions modify traffic flow dynamic. We first prove that the microscopic Free Flow Speed of the vehicles is changed and then provide a rule to model this change. For this, we consider…
In multivariate regression, when covariates are numerous, it is often reasonable to assume that only a small number of them has predictive information. In some medical applications for instance, it is believed that only a few genes out of…
We consider parameter estimation in a regression model corresponding to an iid sequence of censored observations of a finite state modulated renewal process. The model assumes a similar form as in Cox regression except that the baseline…
We propose a formulation of the term structure of interest rates in which the forward curve is seen as the deformation of a string. We derive the general condition that the partial differential equations governing the motion of such string…
We propose a factor state-space approach with stochastic volatility to model and forecast the term structure of future contracts on commodities. Our approach builds upon the dynamic 3-factor Nelson-Siegel model and its 4-factor Svensson…
Estimating the conditional quantile of the interested variable with respect to changes in the covariates is frequent in many economical applications as it can offer a comprehensive insight. In this paper, we propose a novel semiparametric…
We give rates of convergence in the strong invariance principle for stationary sequences satisfying some projective criteria. The conditions are expressed in terms of conditional expectations of partial sums of the initial sequence. Our…
Using microscopic price models based on Hawkes processes, it has been shown that under some no-arbitrage condition, the high degree of endogeneity of markets together with the phenomenon of metaorders splitting generate rough Heston-type…
Fractional Brownian motion with the Hurst parameter $H<\frac{1}{2}$ is used widely, for instance, to describe a 'rough' stochastic volatility process in finance. In this paper, we examine an Ait-Sahalia-type interest rate model driven by a…
Many regenerative arguments in stochastic processes use random times which are akin to stopping times, but which are determined by the future as well as the past behaviour of the process of interest. Such arguments based on "conditioning on…
This paper considers binomial approximation of continuous time stochastic processes. It is shown that, under some mild integrability conditions, a process can be approximated in mean square sense and in other strong metrics by binomial…