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This paper studies the problem of stochastic dynamic pricing and energy management policy for electric vehicle (EV) charging service providers. In the presence of renewable energy integration and energy storage system, EV charging service…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2018-01-09 Chao Luo , Yih-Fang Huang , Vijay Gupta

We design three continuous--time models in finite horizon of a commodity price, whose dynamics can be affected by the actions of a representative risk--neutral producer and a representative risk--neutral trader. Depending on the model, the…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-03-04 René Aïd , Giorgia Callegaro , Luciano Campi

We estimate prices of exotic options in a discrete-time model-free setting when the trader has access to market prices of a rich enough class of exotic and vanilla options. This is achieved by estimating an unobservable quantity called…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-02-26 Terry Lyons , Sina Nejad , Imanol Perez Arribas

The reliable estimation of forecast uncertainties is crucial for risk-sensitive optimal decision making. In this paper, we propose implicit generative ensemble post-processing, a novel framework for multivariate probabilistic electricity…

Applications · Statistics 2020-11-16 Tim Janke , Florian Steinke

We propose a general framework for the simultaneous modeling of equity, government bonds, corporate bonds and derivatives. Uncertainty is generated by a general affine Markov process. The setting allows for stochastic volatility, jumps, the…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2011-07-07 Patrick Cheridito , Alexander Wugalter

The dynamic pricing of electricity is one of the most crucial demand response (DR) strategies in smart grid, where the utility company typically adjust electricity prices to influence user electricity demand. This paper models the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-07-16 Jiangjiang Cheng , Ge Chen , Zhouming Wu , Yifen Mu

It is well documented that a model for the underlying asset price process that seeks to capture the behaviour of the market prices of vanilla options needs to exhibit both diffusion and jump features. In this paper we assume that the asset…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2009-05-21 A. Mijatovic , H. Lo

This paper investigates the pricing of financial derivatives and the calculation of their delta Greek when the underlying asset is a jump-diffusion process in which the stochastic intensity component follows the CIR process. Utilizing…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2025-02-04 Ayub Ahmadi , Mahdieh Tahmasebi

The price of electricity is far more volatile than that of other commodities normally noted for extreme volatility. The possibility of extreme price movements increases the risk of trading in electricity markets. However, underlying the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-02 Rafal Weron

Due to major shifts in European energy supply, a structural change can be observed in Austrian electricity spot price data starting from the second quarter of the year 2021 onward. In this work we study the performance of two different…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-04-24 Christian Laudagé , Florian Aichinger , Sascha Desmettre

We consider a continuous-time financial market with an asset whose price is modeled by a linear stochastic differential equation with drift and volatility switching driven by a uniformly ergodic jump Markov process with a countable state…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-14 Vitaliy Golomoziy , Kamil Kladivko , Yuliya Mishura

Wholesale electricity markets are increasingly integrated via high voltage interconnectors, and inter-regional trade in electricity is growing. To model this, we consider a spatial equilibrium model of price formation, where constraints on…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-04-24 Michael Stanley Smith , Thomas S. Shively

Trading on the day-ahead electricity markets requires accurate information about the realization of electricity prices and the uncertainty attached to the predictions. Deriving accurate forecasting models presents a difficult task due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Hannes Hilger , Dirk Witthaut , Manuel Dahmen , Leonardo Rydin Gorjao , Julius Trebbien , Eike Cramer

Electricity price forecasting is an essential task in all the deregulated markets of the world. The accurate prediction of the day-ahead electricity prices is an active research field and available data from various markets can be used as…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-11-18 Salih Gunduz , Umut Ugurlu , Ilkay Oksuz

Accurate forecasts of electricity prices are crucial for the management of electric power systems and the development of smart applications. European electricity prices have risen substantially and became highly volatile after the Russian…

In this paper we derive a efficient Monte Carlo approximation for the price of path-dependent derivatives under the multiscale stochastic volatility models of Fouque \textit{et al}. Using the formulation of this pricing problem under the…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-05-12 Yuri F. Saporito

In this paper, we price European Call three different option pricing models, where the volatility is dynamically changing i.e. non constant. In stochastic volatility (SV) models for option pricing a closed form approximation technique is…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2023-09-19 Natasha Latif , Shafqat Ali Shad , Muhammad Usman , Chandan Kumar , Bahman B Motii , MD Mahfuzer Rahman , Khuram Shafi , Zahra Idrees

Markov decision models (MDM) used in practical applications are most often less complex than the underlying `true' MDM. The reduction of model complexity is performed for several reasons. However, it is obviously of interest to know what…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-09-18 Patrick Kern , Axel Simroth , Henryk Zähle

In this paper we consider a jump-diffusion dynamic whose parameters are driven by a continuous time and stationary Markov Chain on a finite state space as a model for the underlying of European contingent claims. For this class of processes…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2011-05-24 Alessandro Ramponi

We outline a mathematical model for pricing hydropower generation. The model involves a Markov decision process that reflects the seasonal variation in historical time series of water inflows. The procedure is computationally efficient and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-08-08 Jonathan Pearce , Arash Khojaste , Golbon Zakeri , Geoffrey Pritchard