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Selective conformal prediction can yield substantially tighter uncertainty sets when we can identify calibration examples that are exchangeable with the test example. In interventional settings, such as perturbation experiments in genomics,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Amir Asiaee , Kavey Aryan , James P. Long

A new outer bound on the capacity region of Gaussian interference channels is developed. The bound combines and improves existing genie-aided methods and is shown to give the sum-rate capacity for noisy interference as defined in this…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-11-18 Xiaohu Shang , Gerhard Kramer , Biao Chen

Estimating average causal effect (ACE) is useful whenever we want to know the effect of an intervention on a given outcome. In the absence of a randomized experiment, many methods such as stratification and inverse propensity weighting have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-11 Rathin Desai , Amit Sharma

We develop a practical and novel method for inference on intersection bounds, namely bounds defined by either the infimum or supremum of a parametric or nonparametric function, or equivalently, the value of a linear programming problem with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-05-06 Victor Chernozhukov , Sokbae Lee , Adam M. Rosen

Directed information and its causally conditioned variations are often used to measure causal influences between random processes. In practice, these quantities must be measured from data. Non-asymptotic error bounds for these estimates are…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Yuping Zheng , Andrew Lamperski

We study confidence interval construction for linear regression under Huber's contamination model, where an unknown fraction of noise variables is arbitrarily corrupted. While robust point estimation in this setting is well understood,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-03 Dong Xie , Chao Gao , John Lafferty

In the context of having an instrumental variable, the standard practice in causal inference begins by targeting an effect of interest and proceeds by formulating assumptions enabling its identification. We turn this around by adhering to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-25 Carlos García Meixide , Mark J. van der Laan

Provable lower bounds are presented for the information rate I(X; X+S+N) where X is the symbol drawn independently and uniformly from a finite-size alphabet, S is a discrete-valued random variable (RV) and N is a Gaussian RV. It is well…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2011-10-05 Seongwook Jeong , Jaekyun Moon

We establish conditions under which latent causal graphs are nonparametrically identifiable and can be reconstructed from unknown interventions in the latent space. Our primary focus is the identification of the latent structure in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-06 Yibo Jiang , Bryon Aragam

We consider the inverse problem of estimating an unknown function $u$ from noisy measurements $y$ of a known, possibly nonlinear, map $\mathcal{G}$ applied to $u$. We adopt a Bayesian approach to the problem and work in a setting where the…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-09-20 Masoumeh Dashti , Kody J. H. Law , Andrew M. Stuart , Jochen Voss

This paper considers the general signal detection and parameter estimation problem in the presence of colored Gaussian noise disturbance. By modeling the disturbance with an autoregressive process, we present three signal detectors with…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-07-29 Bo Tang , Haibo He , Steven Kay

We develop efficient algorithms for estimating low-degree moments of unknown distributions in the presence of adversarial outliers. The guarantees of our algorithms improve in many cases significantly over the best previous ones, obtained…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2017-12-27 Pravesh K. Kothari , David Steurer

Motivated by the construction of tractable robust estimators via convex relaxations, we present conditions on the sample size which guarantee an augmented notion of Restricted Eigenvalue-type condition for Gaussian designs. Such a notion is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-04 Philip Thompson , Arnak S. Dalalyan

Mediation analysis is a strategy for understanding the mechanisms by which treatments or interventions affect later outcomes. Mediation analysis is frequently applied in randomized trial settings, but typically assumes: a) that randomized…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-30 Kara E. Rudolph , Nicholas Williams , Ivan Diaz

Estimating causal effects under interference, where the stable unit treatment value assumption is violated, is critical in fields such as regional and public economics. Much of the existing research on causal inference under interference…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Akihiro Sato , Shonosuke Sugasawa

In the era of big data, it is necessary to split extremely large data sets across multiple computing nodes and construct estimators using the distributed data. When designing distributed estimators, it is desirable to minimize the amount of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-04-25 Azeem Zaman , Botond Szabó

Unobserved confounding is one of the main challenges when estimating causal effects. We propose a causal reduction method that, given a causal model, replaces an arbitrary number of possibly high-dimensional latent confounders with a single…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-24 Maximilian Ilse , Patrick Forré , Max Welling , Joris M. Mooij

We consider unbiased estimation of a sparse nonrandom vector corrupted by additive white Gaussian noise. We show that while there are infinitely many unbiased estimators for this problem, none of them has uniformly minimum variance.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-06-02 Alexander Jung , Zvika Ben-Haim , Franz Hlawatsch , Yonina C. Eldar

Nonlinear interference is modeled by a time-varying conditionally Gaussian channel. It is shown that approximating this channel with a time-invariant channel imposes considerable loss in the performance of channel decoding. An adaptive…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-02-02 Reza Rafie Borujeny , Frank R. Kschischang

We give an approach for characterizing interference by lower bounding the number of units whose outcome depends on selected groups of treated individuals, such as depending on the treatment of others, or others who are at least a certain…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-04 David Choi