Related papers: Self-exciting hurdle models for terrorist activity
The interevent time of terrorism attack events is investigated by empirical data and model analysis. Empirical evidence shows it follows a scale-free property. In order to understand the dynamic mechanism of such statistic feature, an…
Spatio-temporal hierarchical modeling is an extremely attractive way to model the spread of crime or terrorism data over a given region, especially when the observations are counts and must be modeled discretely. The spatio-temporal…
We identify robust statistical patterns in the frequency and severity of violent attacks by terrorist organizations as they grow and age. Using group-level static and dynamic analyses of terrorist events worldwide from 1968-2008 and a…
Extreme events with potential deadly outcomes, such as those organized by terror groups, are highly unpredictable in nature and an imminent threat to society. In particular, quantifying the likelihood of a terror attack occurring in an…
Terrorism is a major problem worldwide, causing thousands of fatalities and billions of dollars in damage every year. Toward the end of better understanding and mitigating these attacks, we present a set of machine learning models that…
The underlying reasons behind modern terrorism are seemingly complex and intangible. Despite diverse causal mechanisms, research has shown that there exists general statistical patterns at the global scale that can shed light on human…
We develop flexible multivariate spatio-temporal Hawkes process models to analyze patterns of terrorism. Previous applications of point process methods to political violence data mainly utilize temporal Hawkes process models, neglecting…
Activity profiles of terrorist groups show frequent spurts and downfalls corresponding to changes in the underlying organizational dynamics. In particular, it is of interest in understanding changes in attributes such as…
Modelling wildfire occurrences is important for disaster management including prevention, detection and suppression of large catastrophic events. We present a spatial Poisson hurdle model for exploring geographical variation of monthly…
In this paper, trajectory prediction and control design for a desired hit point of a projectile is studied. Projectiles are subject to environment noise such as wind effect and measurement noise. In addition, mathematical models of…
Current models of human dynamics, used from risk assessment to communications, assume that human actions are randomly distributed in time and thus well approximated by Poisson processes. We provide direct evidence that for five human…
Our goal is to predict the location of the next crime in a crime series, based on the identified previous offenses in the series. We build a predictive model called Next Hit Predictor (NHP) that finds the most likely location of the next…
The rapid spread of radical ideologies in recent years has led to a worldwide string of terrorist attacks. Understanding how extremist tendencies germinate, develop, and drive individuals to action is important from a cultural standpoint,…
This paper introduces new methods for studying the prevalence of terrorism around the world and over time. Our analysis treats spatial prevalence of terrorism, the changing profile of groups carrying out the acts of terrorism, and trends in…
To this day, terrorism persists as a worldwide threat, as exemplified by the ongoing lethal attacks perpetrated by ISIS in Iraq, Syria, Al Qaeda in Yemen, and Boko Haram in Nigeria. In response, states deploy various counterterrorism…
Self-exciting spatio-temporal point process models predict the rate of events as a function of space, time, and the previous history of events. These models naturally capture triggering and clustering behavior, and have been widely used in…
The main focus of this work is on developing models for the activity profile of a terrorist group, detecting sudden spurts and downfalls in this profile, and, in general, tracking it over a period of time. Toward this goal, a $d$-state…
Potential violent criminals will often need to go through a sequence of preparatory steps before they can execute their plans. During this escalation process police have the opportunity to evaluate the threat posed by such people through…
Terrorism instills fear in the minds of people and takes away the freedom of individuals to act as they will. Terrorism has turned out to be an international menace today. Here, we study the terrorist attack incidents which occurred in the…
Hawkes processes are a self-exciting stochastic process used to describe phenomena whereby past events increase the probability of the occurrence of future events. This work presents a flexible approach for modelling a variant of these,…