Related papers: A classification of invariant distributions and co…
When the initial and transition probabilities of a finite Markov chain in discrete time are not well known, we should perform a sensitivity analysis. This can be done by considering as basic uncertainty models the so-called credal sets that…
When the initial and transition probabilities of a finite Markov chain in discrete time are not well known, we should perform a sensitivity analysis. This is done by considering as basic uncertainty models the so-called credal sets that…
We study the computation of lower and upper probabilities of hitting a target set of states for imprecise Markov chains, where transition uncertainty is modelled by a convex set of transition matrices. In the precise case, hitting…
We study inhomogeneous continuous-time weakly ergodic Markov chains with a finite state space. We introduce the notion of a Markov chain with the regular structure of an infinitesimal matrix and study the sharp upper bounds on the rate of…
The effect of perturbations of parameters for uniquely convergent imprecise Markov chains is studied. We provide the maximal distance between the distributions of original and perturbed chain and maximal degree of imprecision, given the…
Nonlinear Markov chains with finite state space have been introduced in Kolokoltsov (2010). The characteristic property of these processes is that the transition probabilities do not only depend on the state, but also on the distribution of…
In this work, we characterise the statistics of Markov chains by constructing an associated sequence of periodic differential operators. Studying the density of states of these operators reveals the absolutely continuous invariant measure…
In this work we introduce a new and richer class of finite order Markov chain models and address the following model selection problem: find the Markov model with the minimal set of parameters (minimal Markov model) which is necessary to…
The problem of estimating an unknown discrete distribution from its samples is a fundamental tenet of statistical learning. Over the past decade, it attracted significant research effort and has been solved for a variety of divergence…
The limiting probability distribution is one of the key characteristics of a Markov chain since it shows its long-term behavior. In this paper, for a higher order Markov chain, we establish some properties related to its exact limiting…
We present an algorithm that can efficiently compute a broad class of inferences for discrete-time imprecise Markov chains, a generalised type of Markov chains that allows one to take into account partially specified probabilities and other…
Verification of infinite-state Markov chains is still a challenge despite several fruitful numerical or statistical approaches. For decisive Markov chains, there is a simple numerical algorithm that frames the reachability probability as…
We consider the problem of characterising expected hitting times and hitting probabilities for imprecise Markov chains. To this end, we consider three distinct ways in which imprecise Markov chains have been defined in the literature: as…
Reversible Markov chains play a central role in stochastic modelling and in algorithms such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Motivated by the fundamental importance of reversibility in classical settings, this paper develops a…
We study the properties of a subclass of stochastic processes called discrete time nonlinear Markov chains with an aggregator, which naturally appear in various topics such as strategic queueing systems, inventory dynamics, opinion…
We derive a sufficient condition for a $k$-th order homogeneous Markov chain $\mathbf{Z}$ with finite alphabet $\mathcal{Z}$ to have a unique invariant distribution on $\mathcal{Z}^k$. Specifically, let $\mathbf{X}$ be a first-order,…
This paper presents a novel theoretical Monte Carlo Markov chain procedure in the framework of graphs. It specifically deals with the construction of a Markov chain whose empirical distribution converges to a given reference one. The Markov…
For many Markov chains of practical interest, the invariant distribution is extremely sensitive to perturbations of some entries of the transition matrix, but insensitive to others; we give an example of such a chain, motivated by a problem…
Imprecise continuous-time Markov chains are a robust type of continuous-time Markov chains that allow for partially specified time-dependent parameters. Computing inferences for them requires the solution of a non-linear differential…
Markov chains are used to give a purely probabilistic way of understanding the conjugacy classes of the finite symplectic and orthogonal groups in odd characteristic. As a corollary of these methods one obtains a probabilistic proof of…