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Importance sampling is a Monte Carlo method which designs estimators of expectations under a target distribution using weighted samples from a proposal distribution. When the target distribution is complex, such as multimodal distributions…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-04 Anas Cherradi , Yazid Janati , Alain Durmus , Sylvain Le Corff , Yohan Petetin , Julien Stoehr

In this article we focus on dynamic network data which describe interactions among a fixed population through time. We model this data using the latent space framework, in which the probability of a connection forming is expressed as a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-21 Kathryn Turnbull , Christopher Nemeth , Matthew Nunes , Tyler McCormick

Constraints can be interpreted in a broad sense as any kind of explicit restriction over the parameters. While some constraints are defined directly on the parameter space, when they are instead defined by known behaviour on the model,…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-27 Shirin Golchi , David A. Campbell

Even after fine-tuning and reinforcement learning, large language models (LLMs) can be difficult, if not impossible, to control reliably with prompts alone. We propose a new inference-time approach to enforcing syntactic and semantic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-11-28 Alexander K. Lew , Tan Zhi-Xuan , Gabriel Grand , Vikash K. Mansinghka

We consider adaptive increasingly rare Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, which are adaptive MCMC methods, where the adaptation concerning the "past'' happens less and less frequently over time. Under a contraction assumption with…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-02-24 Julian Hofstadler , Krzysztof Latuszynski , Gareth O. Roberts , Daniel Rudolf

Improving efficiency of importance sampler is at the center of research in Monte Carlo methods. While adaptive approach is usually difficult within the Markov Chain Monte Carlo framework, the counterpart in importance sampling can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2007-12-11 Heng Lian

We consider the problem of estimating expectations with respect to a target distribution with an unknown normalizing constant, and where even the unnormalized target needs to be approximated at finite resolution. Under such an assumption,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-06-29 Xinzhu Liang , Shangda Yang , Simon L. Cotter , Kody J. H. Law

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a well-established family of algorithms which are primarily used in Bayesian statistics to sample from a target distribution when direct sampling is challenging. Single instances of MCMC methods are widely…

Computation · Statistics 2019-05-27 Alessandro Varsi , Lykourgos Kekempanos , Jeyarajan Thiyagalingam , Simon Maskell

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), or particle filtering, is widely used in nonlinear state-space systems, but its performance often suffers from poorly approximated proposal and state-transition distributions. This work introduces a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Wessel L. van Nierop , Nir Shlezinger , Ruud J. G. van Sloun

Nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space models arise in numerous applications in statistics and signal processing. In this context, one of the most successful and popular approximation techniques is the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm,…

Computation · Statistics 2016-04-20 Francois Septier , Gareth W. Peters

Sequential Monte Carlo methods are a powerful framework for approximating the posterior distribution of a state variable in a sequential manner. They provide an attractive way of analyzing dynamic systems in real-time, taking into account…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-08-29 Dhorasso Temfack , Jason Wyse

The Monte Carlo algorithm is increasingly utilized, with its central step involving computer-based random sampling from stochastic models. While both Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Reject Monte Carlo serve as sampling methods, the…

Computation · Statistics 2024-02-28 Fengyu Li , Huijiao Yu , Jun Yan , Xianyong Meng

We consider the task of MCMC sampling from a distribution defined on a discrete space. Building on recent insights provided in [Zan19], we devise a class of efficient continuous-time, non-reversible algorithms which make active use of the…

Computation · Statistics 2019-12-19 Samuel Power , Jacob Vorstrup Goldman

Sequential Monte Carlo squared (SMC$^2$) methods can be used for parameter inference of intractable likelihood state-space models. These methods replace the likelihood with an unbiased particle filter estimator, similarly to particle Markov…

Computation · Statistics 2022-10-24 Imke Botha , Robert Kohn , Leah South , Christopher Drovandi

Recursive Monte Carlo filters, also called particle filters, are a powerful tool to perform computations in general state space models. We discuss and compare the accept--reject version with the more common sampling importance resampling…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Hans R. Künsch

The Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) approach usually works well when estimating the expected value of a quantity which is a Lipschitz function of intermediate quantities, but if it is a discontinuous function it can lead to a much slower…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-09-06 Michael B Giles

This paper addresses finite sample stability properties of sequential Monte Carlo methods for approximating sequences of probability distributions. The results presented herein are applicable in the scenario where the start and end…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-19 Nick Whiteley

Recent work has suggested using Monte Carlo methods based on piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) to sample from target distributions of interest. PDMPs are non-reversible continuous-time processes endowed with momentum, and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-28 Paul Fearnhead , Sebastiano Grazzi , Chris Nemeth , Gareth O. Roberts

It is often necessary to make sampling-based statistical inference about many probability distributions in parallel. Given a finite computational resource, this article addresses how to optimally divide sampling effort between the samplers…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-18 Nicholas Heard , Melissa Turcotte

We propose a global optimization algorithm based on the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampling framework. In this framework, the objective function is normalized to be a probabilistic density function (pdf), based on which a sequence of…

Computation · Statistics 2016-07-15 Bin Liu