Related papers: Confidence sets in nonparametric calibration of ex…
This paper studies and critically discusses the construction of nonparametric confidence regions for density level sets. Methodologies based on both vertical variation and horizontal variation are considered. The investigations provide…
We analyse the behaviour of the implied volatility smile for options close to expiry in the exponential L\'evy class of asset price models with jumps. We introduce a new renormalisation of the strike variable with the property that the…
Confidence sequences are anytime-valid analogues of classical confidence intervals that do not suffer from multiplicity issues under optional continuation of the data collection. As in classical statistics, asymptotic confidence sequences…
Given a discrete time sample $X_1,... X_n$ from a L\'evy process $X=(X_t)_{t\geq 0}$ of a finite jump activity, we study the problem of nonparametric estimation of the characteristic triplet $(\gamma,\sigma^2,\rho)$ corresponding to the…
To quantify uncertainty around point estimates of conditional objects such as conditional means or variances, parameter uncertainty has to be taken into account. Attempts to incorporate parameter uncertainty are typically based on the…
Uncertainty quantification is crucial to assess prediction quality of a machine learning model. In the case of Extreme Learning Machines (ELM), most methods proposed in the literature make strong assumptions on the data, ignore the…
We develop and implement a non-parametric method for joint exact calibration of a local volatility model and a correlated stochastic short rate model using semimartingale optimal transport. The method relies on the duality results…
Spectral estimation is a fundamental problem for time series analysis, which is widely applied in economics, speech analysis, seismology, and control systems. The asymptotic convergence theory for classical, non-parametric estimators, is…
We study nonasymptotic (finite-sample) confidence intervals for treatment effects in randomized experiments. In the existing literature, the effective sample sizes of nonasymptotic confidence intervals tend to be looser than the…
Constructing valid confidence sets is a crucial task in statistical inference, yet traditional methods often face challenges when dealing with complex models or limited observed sample sizes. These challenges are frequently encountered in…
We consider a recurrent Markov process which is an It\^o semi-martingale. The L\'evy kernel describes the law of its jumps. Based on observations X(0),X({\Delta}),...,X(n{\Delta}), we construct an estimator for the L\'evy kernel's density.…
We provide series expansions for the tempered stable densities and for the price of European-style contracts in the exponential L\'evy model driven by the tempered stable process. These formulas recover several popular option pricing…
A reliable representation of uncertainty is essential for the application of modern machine learning methods in safety-critical settings. In this regard, the use of credal sets (i.e., convex sets of probability distributions) has recently…
A compound Poisson process whose jump measure and intensity are unknown is observed at finitely many equispaced times. We construct a purely data-driven estimator of the L\'evy density $\nu$ through the spectral approach using general…
This article proposes a calibration framework for complex option pricing models that jointly fits market option prices and the term structure of variance. Calibrated models under the conventional objective function, the sum of squared…
In this article, the problem of semi-parametric inference on the parameters of a multidimensional L\'{e}vy process $L_t$ with independent components based on the low-frequency observations of the corresponding time-changed L\'{e}vy process…
Conformal predictive systems allow forecasters to issue predictive distributions for real-valued future outcomes that have out-of-sample calibration guarantees. On a more abstract level, conformal prediction makes use of in-sample…
Closed form formulas for swaption prices in HJM model are derived. These formulas are used for nonparametric fit of deterministic forward volatility. It is demonstrated that this formula and non-parametric fit works very well and can be…
Precise asymptotics for moderate deviation probabilities are established for open convex sets in both the finite- and infinite-dimensional settings. Our results are based on the existence of dominating points for these sets, a related…
This paper examines the construction of confidence sets for parameters defined as linear functionals of a function of W and X whose conditional mean given Z and X equals the conditional mean of another variable Y given Z and X. Many…