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The Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) is a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the classical Hidden Markov Model for learning from (spatio-)temporal data. A sticky HDP-HMM has been proposed to strengthen…
Given a nonparametric Hidden Markov Model (HMM) with two states, the question of constructing efficient multiple testing procedures is considered, treating one of the states as an unknown null hypothesis. A procedure is introduced, based on…
A goal of clinical researchers is to understand the progression of a disease through a set of biomarkers. Researchers often conduct observational studies, where they collect numerous samples from selected subjects throughout multiple years.…
This paper presents algorithms for parallelization of inference in hidden Markov models (HMMs). In particular, we propose parallel backward-forward type of filtering and smoothing algorithm as well as parallel Viterbi-type…
The Continuous-Time Hidden Markov Model (CT-HMM) is an attractive approach to modeling disease progression due to its ability to describe noisy observations arriving irregularly in time. However, the lack of an efficient parameter learning…
A penalized maximum likelihood estimation approach is proposed for discrete-time hidden Markov models where covariates affect the observed responses and serial dependence is considered. The proposed penalized maximum likelihood method…
Consider the problem of predicting the next symbol given a sample path of length n, whose joint distribution belongs to a distribution class that may have long-term memory. The goal is to compete with the conditional predictor that knows…
This paper reveals the intrinsic structure of Matrix Product States (MPS) by establishing their deep connection to entangled hidden Markov models (EHMMs). It is demonstrated that a significant class of MPS can be derived as the outcomes of…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are widely used statistical models for modeling sequential data. The parameter estimation for HMMs from time series data is an important learning problem. The predominant methods for parameter estimation are…
The hidden Markov model (HMM) has been a workhorse of single molecule data analysis and is now commonly used as a standalone tool in time series analysis or in conjunction with other analyses methods such as tracking. Here we provide a…
This paper considers the quickest detection problem for hidden Markov models (HMMs) in a Bayesian setting. We construct an augmented HMM representation of the problem that allows the application of a dynamic programming approach to prove…
Estimating the difficulty of input questions as perceived by large language models (LLMs) is essential for accurate performance evaluation and adaptive inference. Existing methods typically rely on repeated response sampling, auxiliary…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) offer a robust and efficient framework for analyzing time series data, modelling both the underlying latent state progression over time and the observation process, conditional on the latent state. However, a…
We define a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) in which each hidden state has time-dependent $\textit{activity levels}$ that drive transitions and emissions, and show how to estimate its parameters. Our construction is motivated by the problem of…
The forgetting of the initial distribution for discrete Hidden Markov Models (HMM) is addressed: a new set of conditions is proposed, to establish the forgetting property of the filter, at a polynomial and geometric rate. Both a…
A hermitian matrix can be parametrized by a set consisting of its determinant and the eigenvalues of its submatrices. We established a group of equations which connect these variables with the mixing parameters of diagonalization. These…
Joint diagonalization, the process of finding a shared set of approximate eigenvectors for a collection of matrices, arises in diverse applications such as multidimensional harmonic analysis or quantum information theory. This task is…
Standard practice in Hidden Markov Model (HMM) selection favors the candidate with the highest full-sequence likelihood, although this is equivalent to making a decision based on a single realization. We introduce a \emph{fragment-based}…
In this note we introduce an estimate for the marginal likelihood associated to hidden Markov models (HMMs) using sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approximations of the generalized two-filter smoothing decomposition (Briers, 2010). This…
The objective of this article is to study the asymptotic behavior of a new particle filtering approach in the context of hidden Markov models (HMMs). In particular, we develop an algorithm where the latent-state sequence is segmented into…