Related papers: Set-valued average value at risk and its computati…
Cross-validation under sample selection bias can, in principle, be done by importance-weighting the empirical risk. However, the importance-weighted risk estimator produces sub-optimal hyperparameter estimates in problem settings where…
The additive hazards model specifies the effect of covariates on the hazard in an additive way, in contrast to the popular Cox model, in which it is multiplicative. As non-parametric model, it offers a very flexible way of modeling…
Different dependence scenarios can arise in multivariate extremes, entailing careful selection of an appropriate class of models. In bivariate extremes, the variables are either asymptotically dependent or are asymptotically independent.…
We calculate the realized volatility in the spin model of financial markets and examine the returns standardized by the realized volatility. We find that moments of the standardized returns agree with the theoretical values of standard…
Under Solvency II, the Value-at-Risk (VaR) is applied, although there is broad consensus that the Expected Shortfall (ES) constitutes a more appropriate risk measure. Moving towards ES would necessitate specifying the corresponding ES…
In this work we consider optimal stopping problems with conditional convex risk measures called optimised certainty equivalents. Without assuming any kind of time-consistency for the underlying family of risk measures, we derive a novel…
The weighted average is by far the most popular approach to combining multiple forecasts of some future outcome. This paper shows that both for probability or real-valued forecasts, a non-trivial weighted average of different forecasts is…
In the multivariate setting, estimates of extremal risk measures are important in many contexts, such as environmental planning and structural engineering. In this paper, we propose new estimation methods for extremal bivariate return…
This paper studies the links between the descriptions of macroeconomic variables and statistical moments of market trade, price, and return. The randomness of market trade values and volumes during the averaging interval {\Delta} results in…
Conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR) is one of the most important measures of systemic risk. It is defined as the high quantile conditional on a related variable being extreme, widely used in the field of quantitative risk management. In this…
The random values and volumes of consecutive trades made at the exchange with shares of security determine its mean, variance, and higher statistical moments. The volume weighted average price (VWAP) is the simplest example of such a…
Credit Valuation Adjustment is a balance sheet item which is nowadays subject to active risk management by specialized traders. However, one of the most important risk factors, which is the vector of default intensities of the counterparty,…
In this paper, we present a probabilistic adaptation of an Assume/Guarantee contract formalism. For the sake of generality, we assume that the extended state machines used in the contracts and implementations define sets of runs on a given…
We aim to analyze the behaviour of a finite-time stochastic system, whose model is not available, in the context of more rare and harmful outcomes. Standard estimators are not effective in making predictions about such outcomes due to their…
The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 highlighted the crucial role systemic risk plays in ensuring stability of financial markets. Accurate assessment of systemic risk would enable regulators to introduce suitable policies to mitigate…
A new model for the stock market price analysis is proposed. It is suggested to look at price as an everywhere discontinuous function of time of bounded variation.
The economic and financial variables of economic agents determine macroeconomic variables. Current models consider agents' variables that are determined by the sums of values and volumes of agents' trades during some time interval {\Delta}.…
We consider a three-level meta-analysis of standardized mean differences. The standard method of estimation uses inverse-variance weights and REML/PL estimation of variance components for the random effects. We introduce new moment-based…
This article presents a generic model for pricing financial derivatives subject to counterparty credit risk. Both unilateral and bilateral types of credit risks are considered. Our study shows that credit risk should be modeled as American…
Distorted distributions were introduced in the context of actuarial science for several variety of insurance problems. In this paper we consider the quantile-based probabilistic mean value theorem given in Di Crescenzo et al. [4] and…