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We demonstrate that centered likelihood ratio estimators for the sensitivity indices of complex stochastic dynamics are highly efficient with low, constant in time variance and consequently they are suitable for sensitivity analysis in…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-03-23 Georgios Arampatzis , Markos A. Katsoulakis , Luc Rey-Bellet

Chaos arises in many complex dynamical systems, from weather to power grids, but is difficult to accurately model using data-driven emulators, including neural operator architectures. For chaotic systems, the inherent sensitivity to initial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-24 Gabriel Melo , Leonardo Santiago , Peter Y. Lu

The adjoint method, among other sensitivity analysis methods, can fail in chaotic dynamical systems. The result from these methods can be too large, often by orders of magnitude, when the result is the derivative of a long time averaged…

Computational Physics · Physics 2015-03-20 Qiqi Wang , Rui Hu , Patrick Blonigan

We address the issue of how to identify the equations of a largely unknown chaotic system from knowledge about its state evolution. The technique can be applied to the estimation of parameters that drift slowly with time. To accomplish…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-09-17 Francesco Sorrentino , Edward Ott

The sensitivity of long-time averages of a hyperbolic chaotic system to parameter perturbations can be determined using the shadowing direction, the uniformly-bounded-in-time solution of the sensitivity equations. Although its existence is…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2019-05-22 Davide Lasagna , Ati Sharma , Johan Meyers

We consider the linear and quadratic higher order terms associated to the response of the statistical properties of a dynamical system to suitable small perturbations. These terms are related to the first and second derivative of the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2020-02-12 Stefano Galatolo , Julien Sedro

Low-dimensional chaotic systems such as the Lorenz-63 model are commonly used to benchmark system-agnostic methods for learning dynamics from data. Here we show that learning from noise-free observations in such systems can be achieved up…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2025-07-15 Christof Schötz , Niklas Boers

In uncertainty quantification, a stochastic modelling is often applied, where parameters are substituted by random variables. We investigate linear dynamical systems of ordinary differential equations with a quantity of interest as output.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-09-23 Roland Pulch , Akil Narayan

Sensitivity analysis of multibody systems computes the derivatives of general cost functions that depend on the system solution with respect to parameters or initial conditions. This work develops adjoint sensitivity analysis for hybrid…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-02-21 Sebastien Corner , Corina Sandu , Adrian Sandu

The review presents a parameter switching algorithm and his applications which allows numerical approximation of any attractor of a class of continuous-time dynamical systems depending linearly on a real parameter. The considered classes of…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2011-02-16 M. -F. Danca , M. Romera , G. Pastor , F. Montoya

The efficient method for computing the sensitivities is the adjoint method. The cost of solving an adjoint equation is comparable to the cost of solving the governing equation. Once the adjoint solution is obtained, the sensitivities to any…

Computational Physics · Physics 2018-05-22 Guojun Hu , Tomasz Kozlowski

We propose a novel framework for approximating the statistical properties of turbulent flows by combining variational methods for the search of unstable periodic orbits with resolvent analysis for dimensionality reduction. Traditional…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2025-01-22 Thomas Burton , Sean Symon , Ati Sharma , Davide Lasagna

In this article, on the example of the known low-order dynamical models, namely Lorenz, Rossler and Vallis systems, the difficulties of reliable numerical analysis of chaotic dynamical systems are discussed. For the Lorenz system, the…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2019-05-22 N. V. Kuznetsov , T. N. Mokaev

The dynamics of unidirectionally coupled chaotic Lorenz systems is investigated. It is revealed that chaos is present in the response system regardless of generalized synchronization. The presence of sensitivity is theoretically proved, and…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2016-10-10 Mehmet Onur Fen

The aim of this article is to highlight the interest to apply Differential Geometry and Mechanics concepts to chaotic dynamical systems study. Thus, the local metric properties of curvature and torsion will directly provide the analytical…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2014-08-11 Jean-Marc Ginoux , Bruno Rossetto

Chaotic systems make long-horizon forecasts difficult because small perturbations in initial conditions cause trajectories to diverge at an exponential rate. In this setting, neural operators trained to minimize squared error losses, while…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-18 Ruoxi Jiang , Peter Y. Lu , Elena Orlova , Rebecca Willett

In chaotic systems, such as turbulent flows, the solutions to tangent and adjoint equations exhibit an unbounded growth in their norms. This behavior renders the instantaneous tangent and adjoint solutions unusable for sensitivity analysis.…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-12-01 Nisha Chandramoorthy , Pablo Fernandez , Chaitanya Talnikar , Qiqi Wang

We use recent advances in the machine learning area known as 'reservoir computing' to formulate a method for model-free estimation from data of the Lyapunov exponents of a chaotic process. The technique uses a limited time series of…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2018-01-17 Jaideep Pathak , Zhixin Lu , Brian R. Hunt , Michelle Girvan , Edward Ott

In this paper, we present a scheme for uncovering hidden chaotic attrac- tors in nonlinear autonomous systems of fractional order. The stability of equilibria of fractional-order systems is analyzed. The underlying initial value problem is…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2018-05-01 Marius-F. Danca

The striking fractal geometry of strange attractors underscores the generative nature of chaos: like probability distributions, chaotic systems can be repeatedly measured to produce arbitrarily-detailed information about the underlying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-31 William Gilpin