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Variational methods are employed in situations where exact Bayesian inference becomes intractable due to the difficulty in performing certain integrals. Typically, variational methods postulate a tractable posterior and formulate a lower…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-12 Nikolaos Gianniotis , Christoph Schnörr , Christian Molkenthin , Sanjay Singh Bora

Maximum likelihood estimation has been extensively used in the joint analysis of repeated measurements and survival time. However, there is a lack of theoretical justification of the asymptotic properties for the maximum likelihood…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Donglin Zeng , Jianwen Cai

An information-theoretic development is given for the problem of compound Poisson approximation, which parallels earlier treatments for Gaussian and Poisson approximation. Let $P_{S_n}$ be the distribution of a sum $S_n=\Sumn Y_i$ of…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-05 A. D. Barbour , Oliver Johnson , Ioannis Kontoyiannis , Mokshay Madiman

One of the fundamental problems in Bayesian statistics is the approximation of the posterior distribution. Gibbs sampler and coordinate ascent variational inference are renownedly utilized approximation techniques that rely on stochastic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-18 Se Yoon Lee

Complex Gaussian basis sets are optimized to accurately represent continuum radial wavefunctions over the whole space. First, attention is put on the technical ability of the optimization method to get more flexible series of Gaussian…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-11-04 Stéphanie Laure Egome Nana , Arnaud Leclerc , Lorenzo Ugo Ancarani

By exploiting the well-known observation that size-biasing or zero-biasing an infinitely divisible random variable may be achieved by adding an independent increment, combined with tools from Stein's method for compound Poisson and Gaussian…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-11 Fraser Daly

In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-10 Anshuk Uppal , Kristoffer Stensbo-Smidt , Wouter Boomsma , Jes Frellsen

A confidence distribution is a complete tool for making frequentist inference for a parameter of interest $\psi$ based on an assumed parametric model. Indeed, it allows to reach point estimates, to assess their precision, to set up tests…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-20 Elena Bortolato , Laura Ventura

This paper establishes the optimal sub-Gaussian variance proxy for truncated Gaussian and truncated exponential random variables. The proofs rely on first characterizing the optimal variance proxy as the unique solution to a set of two…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-27 Mathias Barreto , Olivier Marchal , Julyan Arbel

Suppose that $X_1,X_2,\ldots$ are a stream of independent, identically distributed Poisson random variables with mean $\mu$. This work presents a new estimate $\mu_k$ for $\mu$ with the property that the distribution of the relative error…

Computation · Statistics 2016-06-01 Mark Huber

We consider three models (elliptic, flat and hyperbolic) of Gaussian random analytic functions distinguished by invariance of their zeroes distribution. Asymptotic normality is proven for smooth functionals (linear statistics) of the set of…

Complex Variables · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Mikhail Sodin , Boris Tsirelson

For predictive modeling relying on Bayesian inversion, fully independent, or ``mean-field'', Gaussian distributions are often used as approximate probability density functions in variational inference since the number of variational…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-14 Wyatt Bridgman , Reese Jones , Mohammad Khalil

In this work, we study probability functions associated with Gaussian mixture models. Our primary focus is on extending the use of spherical radial decomposition for multivariate Gaussian random vectors to the context of Gaussian mixture…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-11-06 Gonzalo Contador , Pedro Pérez-Aros , Emilio Vilches

Vecchia approximation has been widely used to accurately scale Gaussian-process (GP) inference to large datasets, by expressing the joint density as a product of conditional densities with small conditioning sets. We study fixed-domain…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-07 Myeongjong Kang , Florian Schäfer , Joseph Guinness , Matthias Katzfuss

The Bayesian smoothing equations are generally intractable for systems described by nonlinear stochastic differential equations and discrete-time measurements. Gaussian approximations are a computationally efficient way to approximate the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2016-04-05 Juha Ala-Luhtala , Simo Särkkä , Robert Piché

We study estimation and prediction of Gaussian processes with covariance model belonging to the generalized Cauchy (GC) family, under fixed domain asymptotics. Gaussian processes with this kind of covariance function provide separate…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-23 Moreno Bevilacqua , Tarik Faouzi

The paper studies the problem of distributed parameter estimation in multi-agent networks with exponential family observation statistics. A certainty-equivalence type distributed estimator of the consensus + innovations form is proposed in…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-02-04 Soummya Kar , Jose Moura

The combination of inducing point methods with stochastic variational inference has enabled approximate Gaussian Process (GP) inference on large datasets. Unfortunately, the resulting predictive distributions often exhibit substantially…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-29 Martin Jankowiak , Geoff Pleiss , Jacob R. Gardner

Variational inference techniques based on inducing variables provide an elegant framework for scalable posterior estimation in Gaussian process (GP) models. Besides enabling scalability, one of their main advantages over sparse…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-24 Simone Rossi , Markus Heinonen , Edwin V. Bonilla , Zheyang Shen , Maurizio Filippone

The Poisson probability distribution is frequently encountered in physical science measurements. In spite of the simplicity and familiarity of this distribution, there is considerable confusion among physicists concerning the description of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2026-04-22 Frank C. Porter