Related papers: A Concise Resolution to the Two Envelope Paradox
This paper studies a fundamental mechanism of how to detect a conflict between arguments given sentiments regarding acceptability of the arguments. We introduce a concept of the inverse problem of the abstract argumentation to tackle the…
If the quantum mechanical description of reality is not complete and a hidden variable theory is possible, what arises is the problem to explain where the rates of the outcomes of statistical experiments come from, as already noticed by…
The method of maximum entropy has been very successful but there are cases where it has either failed or led to paradoxes that have cast doubt on its general legitimacy. My more optimistic assessment is that such failures and paradoxes…
The idea of fully accepting statements when the evidence has rendered them probable enough faces a number of difficulties. We leave the interpretation of probability largely open, but attempt to suggest a contextual approach to full belief.…
This paper calls attention to the current state of the probability (P) domain which presents weak points at the mathematical level and more significant flaws at the application level. Popper notices how fundamental issues raised in quantum…
Criticisms of so called `subjective probability' come on the one hand from those who maintain that probability in physics has only a frequentistic interpretation, and, on the other, from those who tend to `objectivise' Bayesian theory,…
Modern physics is founded on two mainstays: mathematical modelling and empirical verification. These two assumptions are prerequisite for the objectivity of scientific discourse. Here we show, however, that they are contradictory, leading…
In this paper we deal with a new approach to probabilistic reasoning in a logical framework. Nearly almost all logics of probability that have been proposed in the literature are based on classical two-valued logic. After making clear the…
We discuss problems for convex Bayesian decision making and uncertainty representation. These include the inability to accommodate various natural and useful constraints and the possibility of an analog of the classical Dutch Book being…
The Classical Twin Paradox is widely dealt in literature and neatly resolved. In addition, it is also well known that, when looking at two systems which are boosted relative to each other, the concept of the simultaneous effect of a quantum…
Established frameworks to understand problems with reproducibility in science begin with the relationship between our understanding of the prior probability of a claim and the statistical certainty that should be demanded of it, and explore…
I argue that the Oxford school Everett interpretation is internally incoherent, because we cannot claim that in an Everettian universe the kinds of reasoning we have used to arrive at our beliefs about quantum mechanics would lead us to…
Developing a better understanding of surprising or counterintuitive phenomena has constituted a significant portion of deep learning research in recent years. These include double descent, grokking, and the lottery ticket hypothesis --…
After making some general remarks, I consider two examples that illustrate the use of Bayesian Probability Theory. The first is a simple one, the physicist's favorite "toy," that provides a forum for a discussion of the key conceptual issue…
The determination of Parton Distribution Functions from a finite set of data is a typical example of an inverse problem. Inverse problems are notoriously difficult to solve, in particular when a robust determination of the uncertainty in…
The primary objective of this paper is to revisit Simpson's paradox using a statistical misspecification perspective. It is argued that the reversal of statistical associations is sometimes spurious, stemming from invalid probabilistic…
Consider the following story: A teacher announces to her students a test for the following week, such that the test will be ``surprising''. The students use this as the basis for a ``logical derivation'' and reach a contradiction, which…
A central challenge in statistical inference is the presence of confounding variables that may distort observed associations between treatment and outcome. Conventional "causal" methods, grounded in assumptions such as ignorability, exclude…
The eigensolutions of many-body quantum systems are always difficult to compute. The envelope theory is a method to easily obtain approximate, but reliable, solutions in the case of identical particles. It is extended here to treat systems…
The St. Petersburg paradox is the oldest paradox in decision theory and has played a pivotal role in the introduction of increasing concave utility functions embodying risk aversion and decreasing marginal utility of gains. All attempts to…