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This paper introduces a new framework for recovering causal graphs from observational data, leveraging the observation that the distribution of an effect, conditioned on its causes, remains invariant to changes in the prior distribution of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Nang Hung Nguyen , Phi Le Nguyen , Thao Nguyen Truong , Trong Nghia Hoang , Masashi Sugiyama

Graphical models use graphs to represent conditional independence structure in the distribution of a random vector. In stochastic processes, graphs may represent so-called local independence or conditional Granger causality. Under some…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-24 Søren Wengel Mogensen

Causality plays a pivotal role in various fields of study. Based on the framework of causal graphical models, previous works have proposed identifying whether a variable is a cause or non-cause of a target in every Markov equivalent graph…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-16 Qingyuan Zheng , Yue Liu , Yangbo He

Constraint-based causal discovery algorithms learn part of the causal graph structure by systematically testing conditional independences observed in the data. These algorithms, such as the PC algorithm and its variants, rely on graphical…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Murat Kocaoglu

Causal Models are like Dependency Graphs and Belief Nets in that they provide a structure and a set of assumptions from which a joint distribution can, in principle, be computed. Unlike Dependency Graphs, Causal Models are models of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-08 John F. Lemmer

We consider the problem of inferring the directed, causal graph from observational data, assuming no hidden confounders. We take an information theoretic approach, and make three main contributions. First, we show how through algorithmic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-07 Alexander Marx , Jilles Vreeken

Estimating causal quantities traditionally relies on bespoke estimators tailored to specific assumptions. Recently proposed Causal Foundation Models (CFMs) promise a more unified approach by amortising causal discovery and inference in a…

This work presents a conceptual synthesis of causal discovery and inference frameworks, with a focus on how foundational assumptions -- causal sufficiency, causal faithfulness, and the causal Markov condition -- are formalized and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-23 Hannah E. Correia

When domain knowledge is limited and experimentation is restricted by ethical, financial, or time constraints, practitioners turn to observational causal discovery methods to recover the causal structure, exploiting the statistical…

Graphical causal models are an important tool for knowledge discovery because they can represent both the causal relations between variables and the multivariate probability distributions over the data. Once learned, causal graphs can be…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-04-11 Andrew J Sedgewick , Joseph D. Ramsey , Peter Spirtes , Clark Glymour , Panayiotis V. Benos

Causal inference methods based on conditional independence construct Markov equivalent graphs, and cannot be applied to bivariate cases. The approaches based on independence of cause and mechanism state, on the contrary, that causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-04 Nataliya Sokolovska , Pierre-Henri Wuillemin

Real-world complex systems are often modelled by sets of equations with endogenous and exogenous variables. What can we say about the causal and probabilistic aspects of variables that appear in these equations without explicitly solving…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-11-25 Tineke Blom , Mirthe M. van Diepen , Joris M. Mooij

Classical machine learning techniques often struggle with overfitting and unreliable predictions when exposed to novel conditions. Introducing causality into the modelling process offers a promising way to mitigate these challenges by…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-05-28 David Zapata Gonzalez , Marcel Meyer , Oliver Mueller

Algorithms for constraint-based causal discovery select graphical causal models among a space of possible candidates (e.g., all directed acyclic graphs) by executing a sequence of conditional independence tests. These may be used to inform…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-19 Ting-Hsuan Chang , Zijian Guo , Daniel Malinsky

In many fields of scientific research and real-world applications, unbiased estimation of causal effects from non-experimental data is crucial for understanding the mechanism underlying the data and for decision-making on effective…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-12-05 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu , Thuc Duy Le

Functional causal models (fCMs) specify functional dependencies between random variables associated to the vertices of a graph. In directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), fCMs are well-understood: a unique probability distribution on the random…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-10 Carla Ferradini , Victor Gitton , V. Vilasini

This paper concerns the assessment of the effects of actions from a combination of nonexperimental data and causal assumptions encoded in the form of a directed acyclic graph in which some variables are presumed to be unobserved. We provide…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-07-19 Jin Tian

Causal discovery aims to learn causal relationships between variables from targeted data, making it a fundamental task in machine learning. However, causal discovery algorithms often rely on unverifiable causal assumptions, which are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Huiyang Yi , Yanyan He , Duxin Chen , Mingyu Kang , He Wang , Wenwu Yu

Much of the causal discovery literature prioritises guaranteeing the identifiability of causal direction in statistical models. For structures within a Markov equivalence class, this requires strong assumptions which may not hold in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-29 Anish Dhir , Samuel Power , Mark van der Wilk

A main question in graphical models and causal inference is whether, given a probability distribution $P$ (which is usually an underlying distribution of data), there is a graph (or graphs) to which $P$ is faithful. The main goal of this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-30 Kayvan Sadeghi