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We propose a novel framework of estimating systemic risk measures and risk allocations based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We consider a class of allocations whose jth component can be written as some risk measure of the jth…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods remain the mainstay of Bayesian estimation of structural equation models (SEM), though they often incur a high computational cost. We present a bespoke approximate Bayesian approach to SEM, drawing on…

Even though Bayesian neural networks offer a promising framework for modeling uncertainty, active learning and incorporating prior physical knowledge, few applications of them can be found in the context of interatomic force modeling. One…

Presented is a description of a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) parameter estimation routine for use with interferometric gravitational radiational data in searches for binary neutron star inspiral signals. Five parameters associated with…

Bayesian methods hold significant promise for improving the uncertainty quantification ability and robustness of deep neural network models. Recent research has seen the investigation of a number of approximate Bayesian inference methods…

We address the new problem of estimating a piece-wise constant signal with the purpose of detecting its change points and the levels of clusters. Our approach is to model it as a nonparametric penalized least square model selection on a…

We develop a variational Bayesian (VB) approach for estimating large-scale dynamic network models in the network autoregression framework. The VB approach allows for the automatic identification of the dynamic structure of such a model and…

Inverse problems involving partial differential equations (PDEs) are widely used in science and engineering. Although such problems are generally ill-posed, different regularisation approaches have been developed to ameliorate this problem.…

Recent advances in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) extend the scope of Bayesian inference to models for which the likelihood function is intractable. Although these developments allow us to estimate model parameters, other basic problems…

Monte Carlo (MC) integration is the de facto method for approximating the predictive distribution of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). But, even with many MC samples, Gaussian-based BNNs could still yield bad predictive performance due to…

We present two new methods for estimating the order (memory depth) of a finite alphabet Markov chain from observation of a sample path. One method is based on entropy estimation via recurrence times of patterns, and the other relies on a…

A well known identifiability issue in factor analytic models is the invariance with respect to orthogonal transformations. This problem burdens the inference under a Bayesian setup, where Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to…

This paper proposes a Sequential Monte Carlo approach for the Bayesian estimation of mixed causal and noncausal models. Unlike previous Bayesian estimation methods developed for these models, Sequential Monte Carlo offers extensive…

This paper presents a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to generate approximate posterior samples in retrospective multiple changepoint problems where the number of changes is not known in advance. The method uses conjugate models whereby the…

High-dimensional data are routinely collected in many areas. We are particularly interested in Bayesian classification models in which one or more variables are imbalanced. Current Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for posterior…

Over decades, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have been widely studied, with a typical application being the quantification of posterior uncertainties in Bayesian system identification of structural dynamic models. To address the…

We study the computational complexity of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for high-dimensional Bayesian linear regression under sparsity constraints. We first show that a Bayesian approach can achieve variable-selection consistency…

In many applications of Bayesian clustering, posterior sampling on the discrete state space of cluster allocations is achieved via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. As it is typically challenging to design transition kernels to…

The literature in social network analysis has largely focused on methods and models which require complete network data; however there exist many networks which can only be studied via sampling methods due to the scale or complexity of the…

In many hierarchical inverse problems, not only do we want to estimate high- or infinite-dimensional model parameters in the parameter-to-observable maps, but we also have to estimate hyperparameters that represent critical assumptions in…