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We present a dynamic prediction framework for binary sequences that is based on a Bernoulli generalization of the auto-regressive process. Our approach lends itself easily to variants of the standard link prediction problem for a sequence…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-24 Xiaohan Yan , Avleen S. Bijral

We consider the problem of learning causal models from observational data generated by linear non-Gaussian acyclic causal models with latent variables. Without considering the effect of latent variables, one usually infers wrong causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-13 Saber Salehkaleybar , AmirEmad Ghassami , Negar Kiyavash , Kun Zhang

We give a selective review of some recent developments in causal inference, intended for researchers who are not familiar with graphical models and causality, and with a focus on methods that are applicable to large data sets. We mainly…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-26 Marloes H. Maathuis , Preetam Nandy

Causal modeling has long been an attractive topic for many researchers and in recent decades there has seen a surge in theoretical development and discovery algorithms. Generally discovery algorithms can be divided into two approaches:…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-02-06 Ridho Rahmadi , Perry Groot , Marianne Heins , Hans Knoop , Tom Heskes

We consider the problem of learning causal directed acyclic graphs from an observational joint distribution. One can use these graphs to predict the outcome of interventional experiments, from which data are often not available. We show…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-08-18 Jonas Peters , Joris Mooij , Dominik Janzing , Bernhard Schölkopf

Causal knowledge is vital for effective reasoning in science, as causal relations, unlike correlations, allow one to reason about the outcomes of interventions. Algorithms that can discover causal relations from observational data are based…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-12 Anish Dhir , Ciarán M. Lee

Given data sampled from a number of variables, one is often interested in the underlying causal relationships in the form of a directed acyclic graph. In the general case, without interventions on some of the variables it is only possible…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-12-05 Christopher Nowzohour , Peter Bühlmann

Discovering the underlying dynamics of complex systems from data is an important practical topic. Constrained optimization algorithms are widely utilized and lead to many successes. Yet, such purely data-driven methods may bring about…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-05-17 Nan Chen , Yinling Zhang

Identification of causal direction between a causal-effect pair from observed data has recently attracted much attention. Various methods based on functional causal models have been proposed to solve this problem, by assuming the causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-04 Ruichu Cai , Jie Qiao , Kun Zhang , Zhenjie Zhang , Zhifeng Hao

In this review, we discuss approaches for learning causal structure from data, also called causal discovery. In particular, we focus on approaches for learning directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and various generalizations which allow for some…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-20 Chandler Squires , Caroline Uhler

Existing methods for differentiable structure learning in discrete data typically assume that the data are generated from specific structural equation models. However, these assumptions may not align with the true data-generating process,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Chang Deng , Bryon Aragam

We present Causal Generative Neural Networks (CGNNs) to learn functional causal models from observational data. CGNNs leverage conditional independencies and distributional asymmetries to discover bivariate and multivariate causal…

Knowledge of the underlying causal relations is essential for inferring the effect of interventions in complex systems. In a widely studied approach, structural causal models postulate noisy functional relations among interacting variables,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-21 David Strieder , Mathias Drton

Causal discovery from i.i.d. observational data is known to be generally ill-posed. We demonstrate that if we have access to the distribution {induced} by a structural causal model, and additional data from (in the best case) \textit{only…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-15 Francesco Montagna

Local causal discovery is of great practical significance, as there are often situations where the discovery of the global causal structure is unnecessary, and the interest lies solely on a single target variable. Most existing local…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Haoyue Dai , Ignavier Ng , Yujia Zheng , Zhengqing Gao , Kun Zhang

The assumption of independence between observations (units) in a dataset is prevalent across various methodologies for learning causal graphical models. However, this assumption often finds itself in conflict with real-world data, posing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-31 Alex Chen , Qing Zhou

Causal discovery for purely observational, categorical data is a long-standing challenging problem. Unlike continuous data, the vast majority of existing methods for categorical data focus on inferring the Markov equivalence class only,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-20 Yang Ni , Bani Mallick

Causal models seek to unravel the cause-effect relationships among variables from observed data, as opposed to mere mappings among them, as traditional regression models do. This paper introduces a novel causal discovery algorithm designed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-03 Saeed Mohseni-Sehdeh , Walid Saad

Uncovering causal relationships in data is a major objective of data analytics. Causal relationships are normally discovered with designed experiments, e.g. randomised controlled trials, which, however are expensive or infeasible to be…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-11-01 Jiuyong Li , Saisai Ma , Thuc Duy Le , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu

A typical problem in causal modeling is the instability of model structure learning, i.e., small changes in finite data can result in completely different optimal models. The present work introduces a novel causal modeling algorithm for…